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A file image of AJP chief Lurinjyoti Gogoi

GUWAHATI, May 1: The Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) has launched a strong critique against the reliability of exit polls, labeling the forecasts of a significant victory for the BJP-led coalition as “misleading” and “politically driven.” They assert that the actual outcome will likely differ greatly from what has been projected.

During a press briefing held just before the announcement of the 2026 Assam Assembly election results, AJP president Lurinjyoti Gogoi highlighted the historical inaccuracies of exit polls, noting that over 57% of such predictions in India since 1996 have proven to be wrong.

“Exit polls are merely estimates, often flawed,” Gogoi remarked, referencing notable misjudgments in both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. He cited examples from the 2004 general elections, where the NDA's anticipated victory did not materialize, and the 2014 elections, where the BJP's overwhelming success was underestimated. He also mentioned the 2024 elections, where the anticipated “400-plus” seats narrative failed to come true, indicating a consistent misreading of public sentiment.

Gogoi extended his argument to state elections, pointing out discrepancies in outcomes in Delhi (2015), Bihar (2020), West Bengal (2021), Himachal Pradesh (2022), and Goa (2022), where results diverged significantly from predictions. “The trend is evident – exit polls have repeatedly failed to reflect the realities on the ground,” he stated.

He further criticized the underlying political and commercial interests that contribute to these inaccuracies, suggesting that certain media outlets promote a constructed narrative to suggest an electoral wave favoring the ruling party.

“Numerous television channels exhibit clear political biases. Exit polls are often utilized as instruments to shape public perception and can even influence the counting process psychologically,” Gogoi claimed, describing this as a subtle yet perilous interference in the democratic process.

The party also raised concerns about corporate and advertising influences on media organizations, arguing that financial ties to government and private sector funding lead to biased projections. “Sensational headlines and inflated forecasts are driven by TRP ratings rather than actual data,” he added.

Addressing technical limitations, the AJP pointed out issues such as sampling bias and the hesitance of rural voters to reveal their true preferences. They emphasized the intricate nature of alliance politics in a diverse state like Assam, arguing that factors like caste, community, and last-minute vote shifts cannot be accurately captured through limited surveys.

Regarding the Assam elections, party general secretary Jagadish Bhuyan asserted that the political dynamics in 2026 differ significantly from those in 2021. While the opposition was previously fragmented, it is now more unified, even as the BJP-led coalition faces internal strife and factionalism.

“There exists a strong wave of anti-incumbency that exit polls have entirely overlooked,” Bhuyan stated, emphasizing that true ground realities cannot be discerned from air-conditioned offices in Guwahati or Delhi.

He asserted that voters have made their choices independently, predicting a noticeable gap between exit poll forecasts and actual results once the votes are counted.

Encouraging citizens to adopt a critical perspective, the AJP urged the public not to regard exit polls as definitive. “They are merely a media spectacle, not the actual mandate. The true verdict is contained within the EVMs and will be revealed on May 4,” Gogoi concluded.