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Over the coming days, the idea of using head-to-head results as a tiebreaker will seem straightforward enough in concept, but in practice, understanding how it affects the World Cup will be far more difficult.

FIFA has, without much warning or clear reasoning, managed to strip away a significant portion of the thrill from its newly expanded World Cup format.

Take Thursday as an example — it could have been one of the most dramatic days of the tournament.

There could have been six matches with everything at stake, each one packed with tension and emotion as teams fought to make it through the group stage.

Consider the alternate possibilities: Germany might still have been at risk of being overtaken by Ivory Coast, with Ecuador hoping to exploit that uncertainty by defeating Julian Nagelsmann’s side to leapfrog Ivory Coast themselves.

The USA, meanwhile, would have needed to beat Turkey to ensure top spot in their group, while Turkey could have earned three points to overtake either Australia or Paraguay for third place.

Tunisia, too, might have been in a position to do something similar against Sweden.

Instead, none of those scenarios now apply.

Germany have already secured first place, which makes their clash with Ecuador largely meaningless and could unfairly disadvantage Ivory Coast.

The USA are guaranteed top spot and Turkey are fixed at the bottom, leaving Paraguay and Australia to face off in a match where both know a draw will see them safely through.

Tunisia’s loss to Sweden has been given undue significance over their other two games, which means they’re already eliminated. It raises the question — why should losing to one opponent carry more weight than beating another team that that opponent lost to?

In short, Tunisia have lost their shot at advancing, and FIFA has lost the chance to stage a truly competitive fixture.

This pattern repeats across the entire third round of group matches.

Because of the new rules, eight of the 48 teams already know their final positions, even before the last games are played.

The reason? FIFA has inexplicably decided to use head-to-head record as the primary tiebreaker instead of the traditional goal difference system.

It’s difficult to overstate how unnecessary and confusing this change is, particularly because this World Cup has otherwise been so entertaining.

So many potential thrilling finishes have been prematurely neutralised. So many dramatic, all-or-nothing final games have been robbed of meaning.

This is not to say the tournament has become dull — there’s still plenty to look forward to. Scotland, for instance, must still get a result against Brazil. Sweden versus Japan could turn chaotic. Cabo Verde versus Saudi Arabia might produce a historic outcome. Group G still promises excitement, if only because of the number of draws already played.

But that’s the frustrating part — it could have been so much more. Look at Wednesday’s fixtures.

Mexico, sitting on six points in Group A, would normally need at least a draw to guarantee their next knockout game at the iconic Azteca Stadium instead of Houston. Their opponents, the Czech Republic, could have qualified with a win. But under the new system, Mexico are already confirmed as group winners and can rest their main players.

Instantly, the match feels far less compelling.

This head-to-head rule has been used by UEFA in the European Championships for years, and it has consistently proven problematic. So why has FIFA adopted it now, especially while claiming to bring the tournament to the ‘home of entertainment’? It’s hard to justify expensive ticket prices for matches that are essentially dead rubbers.

The outcome is that more teams are prematurely locked into their group positions, leaving no room for surprise finishes or late drama.

FIFA has effectively shut the door on spontaneous excitement.

Gianni Infantino had insisted on keeping four-team groups after the thrillingly chaotic finale of the 2022 World Cup group stage. So why is FIFA now choosing a system that undermines exactly that kind of drama?

Do they truly understand what they are doing? It seems anyone could have predicted these issues.

And this isn’t just about entertainment — it’s also about fairness.

Why should one match in a short group phase be given greater weight than another, especially when that imbalance can completely distort the outcome in such a brief format?

What if a team simply has one bad day?

For instance, Ecuador could now have an unfair edge over Ivory Coast due to the new rule.

The change — introduced exclusively for this World Cup — is all the more baffling given the tournament’s expansion.

FIFA has added more matches, yet ensured fewer of them carry real significance.

Things get even trickier with the third-place qualification system, under which eight of the 12 third-placed teams advance.

Can such a setup truly be fair when group strengths vary so widely?

As discussed in Scotland, the team could be thrashed by Brazil — say, 6-0 — and still go through ahead of a Cabo Verde side that fought valiantly to draw against both Spain and Uruguay.

Then there’s the further complexity of fitting in third-placed teams, which distorts the round of 32 matchups. Instead of straightforward first-versus-second pairings, the bracket becomes uneven.

Take Austria versus Algeria — both might prefer finishing third since that would likely set up a match with Egypt or Belgium, whereas second place could mean facing tournament favourites Spain.

Some of this could be chalked up to luck, but even the draw itself seems unbalanced. Norway and France have already survived the toughest group, but their battle for first might involve similar strategic considerations. One path could lead to a last-16 clash with Germany, the other to a meeting with Brazil or Morocco.

In essence, this new format discourages teams from actually playing to win their final group matches — far more than the old system ever did.

The Independent had actually proposed a superior alternative back in December — one that preserved both expansion and competitive tension.

Instead of letting eight third-placed teams advance, the idea was to allow only the top two to progress, with the eight best group winners going straight into the last 16, much like the Champions League format. A preliminary knockout round for the remaining 16 teams would reward those who won their groups while keeping the incentive to perform strongly in the final fixtures. It would also be practical in a physically demanding tournament — the best teams would finally earn a rest.

The Independent reached out to FIFA to ask how and why this current model was selected.

The truth is, much of it simply defies explanation.