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Breakout or Breakdown? June 30 could set Nifty’s next big move, says Harshubh Shah
ET CONTRIBUTORS | June 29, 2025 3:40 PM CST

Synopsis

The Indian equity markets wrapped up the week on a strong footing, with the Nifty50 registering a 2% gain for the week ended June 27, 2025.

The Indian equity markets wrapped up the week on a strong footing, with the Nifty50 registering a 2% gain for the week ended June 27, 2025.

Bullish sentiment dominated four out of the last five trading sessions, backed by a sharp intraday rally, resilient support zones, and strategic time-based inflection points that aligned well with recent market moves.

One of the key supporting signals for the bulls was the continued decline in India VIX, which slipped by 1.6% to close at 12.39 on Friday.

A lower VIX indicates reduced volatility expectations and bolsters investor confidence—an encouraging sign heading into the final trading sessions of the first half of FY25.

Review: Time + Levels = Tactical Precision

In our previous update, we had highlighted June 25 (±1 trading day) as a high-alert reversal window — and the Nifty responded in textbook fashion.

June 24: Nifty opened with a sharp 225-point gap-up and showed high intraday volatility. This move set the stage for a 300+ point rally across the next two sessions.

Our resistance level of 25,322 proved precise — Nifty made a day high exactly at this level before a sharp pullback.

On June 25, support at 25,145 held strong, triggering a rebound.

On June 26, both 25,322 and 25,434 acted as important swing zones, highlighting the strength of price-time confluence.

Time-based forecasting once again proved its merit. Intraday reversals aligned remarkably well with pre-identified time windows:

June 23: 10:30 AM slot matched day low at 10:15 AM; day high came at 1:30 PM.

June 24: 9:20 AM low and 1:45 PM high aligned with projected time slots.

June 25: Price action remained range-bound near the 11:40 AM slot; 1:30 PM marked the day high.

June 26: 10:15 AM saw a swing high, and momentum returned just before the 12:25 PM slot.

June 27: The market picked up pace at 10:45 AM and peaked exactly at 12:40 PM — both matching the forecasted windows.

Week after week, the convergence of time and levels continues to deliver high-probability swing and intraday setups for tactical traders.


Time-Cycle Alert: June 30, 2025

June 30 will be a crucial decision day. Watch for a breakout or breakdown from the high/low of the day — this could determine the next major directional leg for Nifty. A clear trend emerging from this session could set the tone for early July.

Intraday Time Slots: July 1–5, 2025

Traders can use the following key time windows to identify potential intraday trend shifts, reversals, or high-probability entry/exit points:

Monday, June 30: 9:25 AM | 11:10 AM | 12:35 PM | 2:40 PM

Tuesday, July 1: 9:15 AM | 10:20 AM | 11:20 AM

Wednesday, July 2: 11:20 AM | 12:45 PM

Thursday, July 3: 9:25 AM | 12:15 PM

Friday, July 4: 12:20 PM | 1:35 PM | 2:30 PM

These are critical times where intraday volatility, breakout attempts, or trend reversals are most likely to occur. Use lower timeframes for confirmation.

Nifty Levels to Watch

Supports:

25,566 | 25,434 | 25,320 | 25,120 | 24,978 | 24,856

Resistances:

25,600 | 25,910 | 26,234

A sustained move above 25,910 could open the gates for a test of 26,234, while a breach below the 25,120–25,320 zone may attract selling pressure and trigger a corrective move.

Trading Outlook

With time clusters and support-resistance levels tightly aligned, tactical traders should remain alert, especially on June 30, a key inflection day. Stick to disciplined setups, use time-level alignment, and let price action confirm your trades. Precision continues to be the edge in this market.

(The author is Director, Wealthview Analytics Pvt Ltd)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)


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