Beginning of every summer is marked by alarming stories about heat deaths, pointing to the urgency of climate action. Yet, this narrative tells a misleading fraction of the story. Media seldom reports on cold deaths. Cold, by contrast, kills slowly - often over months. In low temperatures, the body constricts peripheral blood vessels to conserve heat, raising BP. Elevated BP is the world's leading cause of death, accounting for 19% of all fatalities.
Cold deaths far outnumber heat deaths. The 2021 comprehensive Lancet study, 'Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019', shows that while heat kills nearly half a million globally each year, cold kills more than 4.5 mn, or 9x cold deaths than heat deaths.
The US sees more than 80,000 cold deaths each year, vastly outweighing 8,000 heat deaths. In Latin America and Europe, cold deaths outweigh heat deaths 4:1. In Africa, cold deaths are an astounding 46x frequent than heat deaths. Even in India, cold deaths outnumber heat deaths by 7:1.
Global warming, indeed, causes more heatwaves, and these raise the risk that more people die because of heat. But it also reduces cold waves, leading to fewer cold deaths. The Lancet study found that over the past two decades, temperature increases have caused 116,000 more heat deaths annually, but 283,000 fewer cold deaths. The net effect is reduction of 166,000 temperature-related deaths each year. It is a travesty that this is almost never reported.
Of course, as the temperature rises, that balance will shift. But a near-global Nature study shows that, looking only at the impact of climate change, the number of total dead from heat and cold will stay lower than today almost up to a 3° C temperature increase, which is more than currently expected by the end of this century.
One of the most obvious ways to keep populations cool is through cheap and effective city design: planting more trees, adding green spaces, and painting black roofs and roads white to make them more reflective. The best way to reduce both heat and cold deaths is ensuring access to cheap energy.
Affordable energy allows people to use AC during heatwaves and heating during cold snaps. In the US, heat deaths have halved since 1960 largely due to air conditioning, despite more hot days. Affordable heating, enabled by lower natural gas prices from fracking, now saves an estimated 12,500 lives each winter.
The big problem is that climate policies prioritise reducing CO₂ emissions over energy affordability. Policies that increase energy costs make it harder for people to afford heating and cooling, which can mean more deaths, especially among the poor and vulnerable. IEA's latest data across 70 countries from 2023 shows a clear correlation between more solar and wind and higher average household and business energy prices.
Countries pushing net-zero climate policies and fossil fuel taxes like Germany have seen energy costs soar. In January, residential consumers in Berlin paid ₹0.404 for 1 kWh of electricity, far above even the relatively high EU average cost of ₹0.255. 3 in 4 Germans say they are worried about whether they can afford the high cost of Germany going green. Nearly 60% shiver in the cold instead of turning on heat, according to a survey by Sweden-based energy group Vattenfall.
While climate change is a real problem, media's reduction of this complex issue to sensationalist stories of heat deaths is misleading. We need policies that prioritise human well-being, ensuring affordable energy, along with adaptation. To tackle long-term global warming, we also need to invest in energy innovation to over time make green energy cheaper and more reliable, rather than imposing costly mandates.
Cold deaths far outnumber heat deaths. The 2021 comprehensive Lancet study, 'Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019', shows that while heat kills nearly half a million globally each year, cold kills more than 4.5 mn, or 9x cold deaths than heat deaths.
The US sees more than 80,000 cold deaths each year, vastly outweighing 8,000 heat deaths. In Latin America and Europe, cold deaths outweigh heat deaths 4:1. In Africa, cold deaths are an astounding 46x frequent than heat deaths. Even in India, cold deaths outnumber heat deaths by 7:1.
Global warming, indeed, causes more heatwaves, and these raise the risk that more people die because of heat. But it also reduces cold waves, leading to fewer cold deaths. The Lancet study found that over the past two decades, temperature increases have caused 116,000 more heat deaths annually, but 283,000 fewer cold deaths. The net effect is reduction of 166,000 temperature-related deaths each year. It is a travesty that this is almost never reported.
Of course, as the temperature rises, that balance will shift. But a near-global Nature study shows that, looking only at the impact of climate change, the number of total dead from heat and cold will stay lower than today almost up to a 3° C temperature increase, which is more than currently expected by the end of this century.
One of the most obvious ways to keep populations cool is through cheap and effective city design: planting more trees, adding green spaces, and painting black roofs and roads white to make them more reflective. The best way to reduce both heat and cold deaths is ensuring access to cheap energy.
Affordable energy allows people to use AC during heatwaves and heating during cold snaps. In the US, heat deaths have halved since 1960 largely due to air conditioning, despite more hot days. Affordable heating, enabled by lower natural gas prices from fracking, now saves an estimated 12,500 lives each winter.
The big problem is that climate policies prioritise reducing CO₂ emissions over energy affordability. Policies that increase energy costs make it harder for people to afford heating and cooling, which can mean more deaths, especially among the poor and vulnerable. IEA's latest data across 70 countries from 2023 shows a clear correlation between more solar and wind and higher average household and business energy prices.
Countries pushing net-zero climate policies and fossil fuel taxes like Germany have seen energy costs soar. In January, residential consumers in Berlin paid ₹0.404 for 1 kWh of electricity, far above even the relatively high EU average cost of ₹0.255. 3 in 4 Germans say they are worried about whether they can afford the high cost of Germany going green. Nearly 60% shiver in the cold instead of turning on heat, according to a survey by Sweden-based energy group Vattenfall.
While climate change is a real problem, media's reduction of this complex issue to sensationalist stories of heat deaths is misleading. We need policies that prioritise human well-being, ensuring affordable energy, along with adaptation. To tackle long-term global warming, we also need to invest in energy innovation to over time make green energy cheaper and more reliable, rather than imposing costly mandates.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)
Bjørn Lomborg
President, Copenhagen Consensus, and author of False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet