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RBI estimates a deduction of 25 basis points in repo rate in the fourth quarter of 2025: HSBC
Sandy Verma | August 13, 2025 5:24 PM CST

New delhi� Nai Delhi:If the high -frequency figures continue, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can cut 25 basis points in the fourth quarter this year. According to the report of HSBC Global Investment Research, some market participants may be renewed and relaxed due to the high growth of one year ahead and inflation. And can cut rates.

The report states, “If the high frequency activity indicators are weak in the coming months, the RBI may reduce its development forecast. The repo rate is expected to be cut by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter, which will reduce the repo rate to 5.25 percent.” After the relaxation of the last session, the RBI kept the policy rate in August 5.50 percent in the last session.

Inflation was 1.6 percent on an annual basis; Although there was a slight increase in food prices, the energy prices declined and the main inflation decreased, reaching an eight -year low. The gradual speed was slow at 0.1 percent. The average gradual speed of the last six months has been stable. Due to untouched base effects, adequate stored food stores, good kharif crop sowing and weak commodity prices, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to be 3.2 percent in FY 2026.

The report stated that the prices of vegetables, which were in default for the first six months, increased more quickly than expected, due to which unexpected figures came out today. Except for the supports, the main inflation has come down to 3.6 percent, which was earlier 3.8 percent. The stable substance came up 0.2 percent after six months. Heavy grains with 9.7 percent weight continued to decline for the second consecutive month.

The report further states, “Falling prices of pulses, sugar and fruits partially compensated for the increase in edible oil, eggs, meat, fish and vegetables. The annual inflation remained in the red mark, causing the main inflation to come down to an eight -year low.” The energy index is 0.7 percent lower on a monthly basis. This includes petrol, diesel, fuel and light. This includes petrol, diesel, fuel and light. The report states that this rapid gradual decline can be explained by a decrease in power and LPG prices on a gradual basis.


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