Those who have wished, in the larger scheme of things, for the reopening of India-China lines now have Trump to thank. US protectionism is pushing the two Asian countries to make common cause on free trade. New Delhi is being cautiously pragmatic about its neighbour after being singled out for special tariff action by the idiosyncratic Trump raj. It is also affected by China's use of tactical export controls, like those over rare earths, as it negotiates a tariff deal with the US. Reports that China has lifted curbs on export of fertilisers, rare-earth magnets and tunnel-boring machines may be an opening for India. Building bridges with China when trade negotiations with the US are slow should ease some pressure on New Delhi. More so when the US is drumming up support for punitive taxes on India for buying Russian oil. Beijing has not been targeted by Washington, but will be drawn in if Trump is serious about a Western embargo on Russian energy exports. His logic on such matters is 'peccable'.
New Delhi has two obvious areas of concern that hold back closer trade relations with Beijing: border disagreement, and trade surplus China runs up with India. Progress on both fronts is vital for meaningful engagement. India hopes to benefit from the China plus-one strategy of global manufacturing companies. But hope alone won't do. It is at a disadvantage to Asian rivals plugged deeper into Chinese value chains.
India's engagement with China is also governed by its need for the US as a strategic ally and its principal export destination. Trump may have muddied the waters for India. But the US has a non-adversarial relationship with India in the techscape that can keep things in balance. There is a point beyond which India can't be pushed, by Washington or Beijing. This leaves some space for New Delhi to react to a fluid external environment. Some of the pressure will, of course, dial down if Trump can broker peace in Ukraine. India should use this experience to build on the progress it has achieved with the US, as well as with China.
New Delhi has two obvious areas of concern that hold back closer trade relations with Beijing: border disagreement, and trade surplus China runs up with India. Progress on both fronts is vital for meaningful engagement. India hopes to benefit from the China plus-one strategy of global manufacturing companies. But hope alone won't do. It is at a disadvantage to Asian rivals plugged deeper into Chinese value chains.
India's engagement with China is also governed by its need for the US as a strategic ally and its principal export destination. Trump may have muddied the waters for India. But the US has a non-adversarial relationship with India in the techscape that can keep things in balance. There is a point beyond which India can't be pushed, by Washington or Beijing. This leaves some space for New Delhi to react to a fluid external environment. Some of the pressure will, of course, dial down if Trump can broker peace in Ukraine. India should use this experience to build on the progress it has achieved with the US, as well as with China.
