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State pensioners could see their payments increase by £500 a year or more from next April. Payments increase each year in line with the triple lock, which guarantees a pay increase in line with the highest of inflation, the rise in average earnings, or the rate of inflation - whichever is higher. The latest inflation figures have come in at 3.8 per cent for the year to July, meaning the earnings metric is still on track to be the key figure for next year's state pension increase.

Looking at the trends over the past few months, Steven Cameron, pensions director at wealth firm Aegon, said: "The rate of inflation has been rising over the last three months, now sitting at 3.8 per cent, compared to 3.4 per cent and 3.6 per cent in the last two periods. At the same time, the rate of increase in average earnings has been slowing in recent months, with the latest figure sitting at 4.6 per cent, down from 5.4 per cent and 5.0 per cent for the last two periods."

The inflation figure used for the triple lock for the following year is based on the figures for the year to September, while the earnings growth figure used is for the period from May to July. If current trends continue with inflation climbing up while wage growth declines, this could mean payments going up by 4.2 per cent next year.

Mr Cameron said: "There's a good chance the triple lock could produce an increase of 4.2 per cent or more. This would mean those on the full new state pension would see it increase from £11,973 this year to £12,475 next year."

The full new state pension currently pays £230.25 a week, while the full basic state pension pays £176.45 a week. One concern with the rising payments is that the full new state pension could soon be taxed.

The standard personal allowance means you can earn up to £12,570 a year without paying income tax, so a 4.2 per cent rise in payments would mean those on the full new amount would be barely £100 away from paying tax on their state pension.

Mr Cameron said: "The personal allowance for income tax purposes has been frozen at £12,570 until April 2028, with speculation the freeze might be extended in the Autumn Budget. While someone whose sole income is the full new state pension will be below the threshold next year and escape paying income tax, that will change the following year.

"With the triple lock paying a minimum of 2.5 per cent, the full new state pension is certain to be above the personal allowance for the 2027/28 tax year, creating an income tax liability for those even with no other income." The expert said the Government may have to act given this pressing issue.

He said: "While the tax due will be very small, this will cause concern to many pensioners and an admin nightmare for HMRC. It may be that the Government will introduce some form of exemption specific to affected state pensioners, although this could be seen as unfair if it didn't apply to those of working age too."