
The Champions League draw never fails to stir excitement, but beneath the glitz of Monaco lies a harsh reality: some clubs get the luck of the draw, while others are handed a mountain to climb. This year, Opta’s supercomputer has crunched the numbers and delivered its verdict on who should be smiling — and who should already be sweating.
Arsenal Among the Big Winners
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal are sitting pretty after landing one of the kindest fixture lists of all 36 clubs. The Gunners face Olympiacos, Slavia Prague and even Kairat Almaty — the Kazakh champions ranked 474th in the world. That alone dragged down the overall difficulty of their schedule, ranking them with the third easiest draw in the competition.
There will still be glamour nights against Bayern Munich and Inter Milan, but the balance of fixtures is about as favourable as Arteta could have hoped for.
Spurs and Chelsea Also BenefitNorth London rivals Tottenham Hotspur have also been blessed. For manager Thomas Frank — embarking on his first Champions League campaign in 18 years of coaching — the draw looks far less daunting than feared. Spurs face Borussia Dortmund, Villarreal, Eintracht Frankfurt and Bodo/Glimt, ranking them fourth easiest overall according to Opta’s data.
Chelsea, back in the tournament under Enzo Maresca, will quietly fancy their chances too. With Ajax, Qarabag and debutants Pafos of Cyprus in their schedule, the Blues have plenty of opportunity to collect points before facing Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Napoli.
Liverpool Balanced, City Mid-TableLiverpool’s draw is a mixed bag: Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will light up Anfield in blockbuster clashes, but ties against Frankfurt, Marseille and Qarabag are seen as manageable. Arne Slot’s men will feel cautiously optimistic.
Manchester City, meanwhile, fall somewhere in the middle. Facing Real Madrid yet again — for the fifth consecutive season — along with Bayer Leverkusen, Villarreal, Dortmund, Napoli and Galatasaray, Pep Guardiola’s men face a demanding but not insurmountable test.
Newcastle’s NightmareThe real bad news belongs to Newcastle United. Eddie Howe’s side have been handed one of the five hardest schedules in the entire competition, according to Opta’s model.
Their opponents? Barcelona, PSG, Leverkusen, Benfica, Union Saint-Gilloise and Athletic Bilbao — a brutal lineup that includes five of the eight sides considered worst-case scenarios for English clubs. For a squad still adjusting to European football, it’s a trial by fire.
The Continental PerspectiveElsewhere, Bayern Munich and PSG were the unluckiest of the heavyweights. Harry Kane’s Bayern face Arsenal, Sporting Lisbon and Union Saint-Gilloise, while PSG drew Barcelona, Leverkusen, Tottenham and Newcastle.
At the other end of the spectrum, debutants Pafos and Copenhagen were ranked as having the joint easiest draws, though their chances of going deep in the tournament remain slim.
What the Numbers Don’t Tell YouOf course, Opta’s rankings can’t predict everything. Just last season, PSG had the toughest draw on paper — yet Luis Enrique’s side still went on to lift the first European Cup in their history.
Still, the data suggests that while Arsenal, Spurs and Chelsea can afford to dream big, Newcastle must brace themselves for one of the sternest examinations any side will face this year.
The Champions League drama has begun long before the first whistle.
Opta Power Rankings:-
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