
The British economy is stuck in a doom loop and Chancellor Rachel Reeves is unable to get us out of it. Unemployment is up and organisations representing employers are united in warning that decisions made in last year's Budget, including increasing National Insurance, are at least partly to blame.
The trouble is that Ms Reeves needs the money. The UK is running a deficit of £137.5 billion annually, with the Treasury spending far more than it receives in taxes. That means the Government has to borrow more. But it is already paying interest of £105.2 billion on its debts every year, more than the £89.2 billion we spend on education.
So Ms Reeves desperately needs either to collect more taxes or to spend less. But spending less is hard, especially as Labour MPs have vehemently resisted efforts to cut the cost of benefits.
That's why the Chancellor was forced to put up taxes in her first Budget, last year, and is expected to do the same again this time.
Putting up taxes, however, hurts the economy. It means fewer jobs and lower wages, as we have seen with the latest unemployment figures. And in the long run, that actually means the Treasury receives less tax and has to pay more benefits..
The cure, in other words, ultimately makes the disease worse.
One way out of this doom loop might be for the Chancellor to find tax rises that are both politically acceptable and do not affect employers. This is why there is talk about new taxes on wealth, property or inheritance. These would be designed to target individuals, not businesses, and would only affect the rich rather than the average voter.
But in the long run, she urgently needs to cut spending. That means cutting the £87.8 billion we spend on Universal Credit, £74.6 billion spent on other non-pensioner benefits and the £150.7 billion spent on pensioners.
A little progress is being made. Both Labour and the last Tory government introduced policies encouraging working people to save into a pension fund, so they can support themselves in old age rather than depending on the state.
However, attempts to limit spending on benefits for working-age people were blocked by rebellious Labour MPs. The Government's plan wouldn't actually have cut the cost of benefits - it would only have slowed the increase, but even that was too much for Labour backbenchers.
Ms Reeves has no way of bringing the doom loop to an end, and we are all paying the price.
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