It’s no secret that Elon Musk is pretty bullish on the future of robotics and robotaxis, often invoking the future potential for Tesla and his AI ventures. But as the marketing adage goes, don’t believe everything you see. It was recently reported that PharmAGRI Capital Partners has inked a deal with Tesla to source 10,000 Optimus robots. Well, it seems the buzz was unfounded and Musk personally debunked the information by labeling it as “fake” on X, formally Twitter.
Pharm Agri, a California-based pharmaceuticals company, announced a merger with Bright Green Corporation earlier this month, alongside a deal signed with Tesla’s robotics division. “PharmAGRI has executed a Letter of Intent (LOI) with Tesla to deploy up to 10,000 Optimus 3+ humanoid robotics across its owner-operator farm operations, API synthesis, and prescription drug manufacturing,” the company wrote in its press release.
It said the robots will help ensure compliance with labor laws, reduce costs for repetitive tasks, retraining, and tackle the challenge of rising wages. The company further added that all its robot- operations meet the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) norms. Notably, the company mentioned Optimus Gen3+ robots as part of the deal, but Musk recently clarified that Tesla has yet to show off the third-gen Optimus (V3) robot. The most recent iteration is the V2.5 model, which gets a bronze-inspired paintjob and a streamlined design, compared to sharp lines on the white Optimus V2 robot.
Lofty goals, grim reality
Over the past couple of years, Musk has painted a rather ambitious picture of Tesla’s humanoid robot. Earlier this month, he quipped that nearly 80% of Tesla’s value will come from Optimus. At an annual shareholder meeting last year, the Tesla chief mentioned that Optimus could boost the carmaker’s market value all the way up to $25 trillion. For comparison, Tesla’s current market cap is well under $2 trillion, while Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, is close to $4.5 trillion.
And it seems Musk wants to pitch robots everywhere, from assembly lines in factories to hospitals. “Robots will surpass good human surgeons within a few years and the best human surgeons within ~5 years,” he claimed in April. He further predicts that intelligent humanoid robots will “far exceed” the human population because everyone will seek their own robotic butlers. Even the proposed trillion-dollar pay package for Musk hinges on the success of Optimus. As per Reuters’ estimates, Tesla will have to sell over 100 million units per year to achieve the target of over $8 trillion market cap so that Musk can mint his historical payday.
The challenge will be monumental for multiple reasons. Predicted to cost between $20,000 and $30,000, Tesla has yet to begin mass production and sale of Optimus robots. But beyond a series of delays, the biggest risk comes from the East. Earlier this year, China’s Unitree launched the R1 humanoid robot that costs less than $6,000. And the pace at which Chinese companies are developing affordable robots, and even pitting them in battles and races, it’s going to be a monumental task for Optimus to find buyers, let alone reign supreme in the market.
