JPMorgan has upgraded TPG to “Overweight,” saying the recent decline in shares of alternative asset managers has opened up an attractive buying opportunity. The bank believes TPG is well positioned for long-term growth despite recent market worries about stress in private credit.
According to JPMorgan, the recent bankruptcies in the private credit space are isolated events rather than signs of a broader problem. The firm said these cases do not reflect wider cracks in the private lending market.
TPG’s shares have dropped about 6% since September and are down 7% so far this year, even as the S&P 500 has climbed 14%. JPMorgan argued that this underperformance doesn’t make sense given TPG’s strong fundamentals and growth outlook.
At current prices, TPG trades around 18 times its projected 2026 distributable earnings and 14 times 2027 estimates, levels the analysts said provide “a compelling runway” for gains.
The brokerage expects fundraising to pick up in the coming quarters, as several of TPG’s biggest investment strategies are launching new funds. During its last earnings call, TPG said its latest U.S. Buyout and Healthcare funds could attract roughly $9 billion in commitments in the third quarter of 2025 alone.
JPMorgan also sees additional growth potential from TPG’s push into private wealth distribution and from the integration of its recent acquisitions, Angelo Gordon and Peppertree.
In the longer term, the firm expects carried interest earnings to increase, helped by TPG’s active investment pace and its proven ability to handle complex deals like the multi-step Dish–DirecTV carve-out.
The analysts described TPG as “optimally sized,” noting that the company has enough scale to double its fee-paying assets without facing the structural limitations that larger rivals encounter, while still being more capable than smaller asset managers.
JPMorgan raised its price target on TPG’s stock to $78 from $65 and introduced new earnings estimates for 2027, reflecting its confidence that the firm’s diversified growth engines and steady execution will drive stronger returns ahead.
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