Global warming is redrawing the map of global trade - and, with it, geopolitics. In September, a Chinese vessel, Istanbul Bridge, sailed from Ningbo-Zhoushan to Britain's Felixstowe port, not through the usual Suez Canal route, but via the Arctic Ocean's Northern Sea Route (NSR). When Vladimir Putin visits India in December, New Delhi's potential role in developing this route is expected to feature prominently. NSR's appeal lies in its strategic and economic logic: it's up to 40% shorter than southern shipping lanes and bypasses volatile choke points like the Red Sea, where attacks on merchant ships by Houthi rebels have persisted since 2023. Opened by melting Arctic ice, NSR promises faster, cheaper and potentially safer trade - but at an environmental cost that could prove catastrophic.
For now, NSR traffic is tiny - around 90 ships last year, compared to over 13,000 through Suez. Yet, the competition is heating up. The US, Russia, China and Nordic nations are ramping up Arctic investments, lured by the region's abundant oil, gas and mineral reserves. Donald Trump's tax and spending bill earmarked $8.6 bn to expand the US Coast Guard's icebreaker fleet. Russia has 47 in service, 15 more are under construction. China, Sweden and Canada are also in the process of expanding their fleets. Russia is also encouraging China to expand its use of NSR.
The Arctic, once remote and forbidding, is becoming the new frontier of global rivalry, resource ambition and climate consequence. India cannot afford to remain a spectator. With stakes spanning climate diplomacy, energy security, scientific research and strategic sea lanes, it must act early - to build partnerships, secure interests and ensure the Arctic's story isn't written without it.
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For now, NSR traffic is tiny - around 90 ships last year, compared to over 13,000 through Suez. Yet, the competition is heating up. The US, Russia, China and Nordic nations are ramping up Arctic investments, lured by the region's abundant oil, gas and mineral reserves. Donald Trump's tax and spending bill earmarked $8.6 bn to expand the US Coast Guard's icebreaker fleet. Russia has 47 in service, 15 more are under construction. China, Sweden and Canada are also in the process of expanding their fleets. Russia is also encouraging China to expand its use of NSR.
The Arctic, once remote and forbidding, is becoming the new frontier of global rivalry, resource ambition and climate consequence. India cannot afford to remain a spectator. With stakes spanning climate diplomacy, energy security, scientific research and strategic sea lanes, it must act early - to build partnerships, secure interests and ensure the Arctic's story isn't written without it.
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