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Samsung Electronics appears set to record its highest third-quarter profit since 2022, with analysts attributing the boost to rising memory chip prices amid growing AI adoption.

LSEG SmartEstimate, which aggregates projections from 31 leading analysts, forecasts Samsung’s operating profit at 10.1 trillion won ($7.11 billion) for July-September 2025, marking a 10 per cent rise year-on-year. The recovery is primarily credited to conventional memory chip pricing, which has helped offset slower sales of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. HBM supplies to Nvidia (NVDA.O) have yet to commence, restricting growth in this high-performance segment.

HBM chips, essential for AI workloads, enable stacked-chip designs to process massive datasets efficiently while lowering power use. Analyst reports indicate that AI investments, including services such as ChatGPT, have increased server demand, pushing DRAM prices up 171.8 per cent year-on-year for the third quarter. The pricing spike in conventional memory has been critical to Samsung’s projected Q3 profit rebound.

Challenges from Delayed HBM Supplies and China Exposure

Delays in HBM3E chip deliveries to Nvidia have impacted Samsung’s profitability, while competitors SK Hynix and Micron have benefitted more quickly from AI-led demand. Samsung’s operations in China, constrained by US restrictions on advanced chip sales, have also limited expansion opportunities.

Investor sentiment is improving as Samsung secures high-profile supply deals with Tesla and OpenAI. The July announcement of Samsung’s $16.5 billion foundry deal with Tesla boosted its share price by over 43 per cent. Additionally, collaborations with OpenAI during CEO Sam Altman’s visit to South Korea include supplying advanced memory chips for the Stargate AI project. Analysts note that these partnerships position Samsung to capitalise on growing AI demand, alongside AMD-related deals benefiting the firm’s HBM business.

Risks Ahead Despite Positive Momentum

Despite optimism, potential risks linger. US tariffs on chips and China’s tighter export controls on rare earth materials may create headwinds. Micron’s announcement of selling out all HBM chips for 2026 highlights strong market demand, reinforcing opportunities and competition for Samsung.

Samsung will publish its Q3 revenue and operating profit estimates on Tuesday, with the detailed results expected later this month, providing a clearer picture of the firm’s performance in the AI-driven semiconductor landscape.