Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, NATO's second-highest military official and Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, fears Russia’s growing arsenal of armed drones pose a massive threat to European countries and they need to work on a defensive strategy to counter it.
Even as US President Donald Trump's peace initiative for Ukraine is slow off the blocks, Dragone warns of ongoing hybrid warfare threats towards NATO members, including drone attacks and gray zone operations below the threshold of conventional conflict, without naming Russia but giving enough hints the country he is referring to.
In an EL MUNDO interview at the Halifax Security Forum, marred by US senators' claims (later contradicted by Secretary Marco Rubio) that the Russia-Ukraine peace plan proposed by the US was mere negotiation groundwork, Dragone hints that NATO may have to consider preemptive military actions against such hybrid threats, particularly those posed by Russia, although he stops short of naming Russia explicitly in his public statements.
He states that between 70% and 80% of Russian tanks in Ukraine are destroyed by drones, illustrating the evolving nature of modern warfare where drones have become lethal weapons rather than mere toys.
Reflecting on lessons from Ukraine's defense, he stresses the need to educate societies about their involvement in such conflicts and to rethink deterrence strategies, possibly shifting from purely reactive responses to proactive preventive deterrence by striking preemptively at drone sites or hybrid threat launch areas.
"Launching a preventive action against a site where drones could be ready to be launched [against NATO] could be an option," said Dragone.
This approach marks a significant strategic shift in NATO's posture and highlights Europe's readiness to act independently in defense despite relying heavily on US intelligence and capabilities.
Many within the forum viewed this proposal skeptically, fearing it could undermine Ukraine's sovereignty and the principle that borders should not be redrawn by force. Admiral Dragone insists that any peace must recognize the aggressor and victim roles clearly, emphasizing that NATO stands firmly with Ukraine until a just and lasting peace is achieved, rejecting any compromise that rewards aggression.
This stance underscores ongoing tensions between political initiatives for peace and military realities on the ground.
Nonetheless, Europe is boosting its defense spending, aiming to reach 5% of GDP by 2035, and working to enhance capabilities, including developing a resilient defense industrial base and autonomous digital infrastructure such as cloud computing for defense operations.
The need to bolster European defense autonomy is urgent given the hybrid threat environment and reliance on US technological dominance.
He acknowledges that democratic values lead NATO to be generally reactive but affirms the feasibility of offensive preventive measures from a technical standpoint.
Russia has previously warned it would retaliate against any country attacking it, further heightening the risk of escalating conflict should NATO pursue such preemptive strategies.
Hybrid warfare includes tactics below the threshold of open combat such as drone strikes, sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and political interference designed to destabilize and intimidate without triggering a full-scale war.
Q: How does NATO plan to defend against drone threats?
NATO is enhancing detection, targeting, and destruction capabilities against drones and considers possible preemptive strikes on drone launch sites. Investment in intelligence and military technology is accelerating to counter these threats.
Q: What are the potential risks of NATO adopting a preemptive military posture?
Preemptive strikes risk escalating conflicts, provoking retaliation (including from Russia, which has threatened to respond to attacks on its territory), and complicating diplomatic efforts toward peace.
Even as US President Donald Trump's peace initiative for Ukraine is slow off the blocks, Dragone warns of ongoing hybrid warfare threats towards NATO members, including drone attacks and gray zone operations below the threshold of conventional conflict, without naming Russia but giving enough hints the country he is referring to.
In an EL MUNDO interview at the Halifax Security Forum, marred by US senators' claims (later contradicted by Secretary Marco Rubio) that the Russia-Ukraine peace plan proposed by the US was mere negotiation groundwork, Dragone hints that NATO may have to consider preemptive military actions against such hybrid threats, particularly those posed by Russia, although he stops short of naming Russia explicitly in his public statements.
NATO's hybrid warfare reality and preemptive defense considerations
Admiral Cavo Dragone highlights that NATO is already engaged in a hybrid war involving non-traditional and asymmetric tactics such as sabotage, drone incursions, and influence operations targeting democratic processes in member states.He states that between 70% and 80% of Russian tanks in Ukraine are destroyed by drones, illustrating the evolving nature of modern warfare where drones have become lethal weapons rather than mere toys.
Reflecting on lessons from Ukraine's defense, he stresses the need to educate societies about their involvement in such conflicts and to rethink deterrence strategies, possibly shifting from purely reactive responses to proactive preventive deterrence by striking preemptively at drone sites or hybrid threat launch areas.
"Launching a preventive action against a site where drones could be ready to be launched [against NATO] could be an option," said Dragone.
This approach marks a significant strategic shift in NATO's posture and highlights Europe's readiness to act independently in defense despite relying heavily on US intelligence and capabilities.
Trump’s Ukraine peace proposal and NATO's skepticism
The NATO forum in Halifax took place amid confusion over President Trump's peace proposal for Ukraine, which suggests negotiating arrangements potentially offering Russia additional territorial concessions and European nations bearing reconstruction costs in Ukraine.Many within the forum viewed this proposal skeptically, fearing it could undermine Ukraine's sovereignty and the principle that borders should not be redrawn by force. Admiral Dragone insists that any peace must recognize the aggressor and victim roles clearly, emphasizing that NATO stands firmly with Ukraine until a just and lasting peace is achieved, rejecting any compromise that rewards aggression.
This stance underscores ongoing tensions between political initiatives for peace and military realities on the ground.
Europe's military capabilities and challenges without US support
While European NATO members, including Norway, the UK, and Canada, are major weapons suppliers to Ukraine, Dragone admits the alliance would struggle to replace US support if it were halted. Intelligence capabilities and advanced technologies, particularly the vital ‘beyond the horizon’ capabilities such as early warning of missile launches, remain heavily US-dependent.Nonetheless, Europe is boosting its defense spending, aiming to reach 5% of GDP by 2035, and working to enhance capabilities, including developing a resilient defense industrial base and autonomous digital infrastructure such as cloud computing for defense operations.
The need to bolster European defense autonomy is urgent given the hybrid threat environment and reliance on US technological dominance.
Russia's threats and NATO's response options
Though Dragone never names Russia explicitly, the context of the Ukraine war and hybrid threats leaves little doubt who the primary adversary is. He states that NATO may undertake preventive actions not only against Russia but against any entity threatening alliance security.He acknowledges that democratic values lead NATO to be generally reactive but affirms the feasibility of offensive preventive measures from a technical standpoint.
Russia has previously warned it would retaliate against any country attacking it, further heightening the risk of escalating conflict should NATO pursue such preemptive strategies.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is “hybrid warfare” as described by Admiral Dragone?Hybrid warfare includes tactics below the threshold of open combat such as drone strikes, sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and political interference designed to destabilize and intimidate without triggering a full-scale war.
Q: How does NATO plan to defend against drone threats?
NATO is enhancing detection, targeting, and destruction capabilities against drones and considers possible preemptive strikes on drone launch sites. Investment in intelligence and military technology is accelerating to counter these threats.
Q: What are the potential risks of NATO adopting a preemptive military posture?
Preemptive strikes risk escalating conflicts, provoking retaliation (including from Russia, which has threatened to respond to attacks on its territory), and complicating diplomatic efforts toward peace.
