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Silver Price Outlook 2025: After an 85% Rally, Can Silver Cross ₹2 Lakh per Kg? Expert Insights

The year 2025 has turned out to be a landmark one for precious metals, especially silver. As of early December, silver prices have skyrocketed by nearly 85%, outperforming even gold, which itself has gained 66% on a yearly basis. This remarkable rise has triggered a burning question among investors—can silver now climb beyond ₹2 lakh per kilogram?

With supply constraints, strong industrial demand, a weakening rupee, and expectations of global monetary easing, the outlook for silver remains robust. Market experts believe that the rally may still have room to continue, although short-term volatility is likely.

Profit Booking Pressures MCX Prices

After a strong rally in recent sessions, Indian traders opted for profit booking on Tuesday. This led to weaker openings for both precious metals on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

By around 3:40 pm:

• Gold fell 0.47% to ₹1,26,720 per 10 grams

• Silver slipped 2.73% to ₹1,73,340 per kilogram

This dip, however, comes right after gold hit a six-week high, fuelled by expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and a sharply weaker rupee, which recently touched an all-time low against the dollar.

Global Cues Support Silver’s Rally

On the international front, the U.S. dollar index softened to 99.43, offering support to dollar-denominated commodities such as gold and silver.

• Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,222.93 per ounce

• U.S. gold futures were lower by 0.4% at $4,256.30

Over the past three months, gold has climbed 25%, but silver has outpaced it with a staggering 40% jump, frequently approaching record highs.

Supply Crunch Driving Silver’s Momentum

One of the strongest catalysts behind silver’s rise is the growing global supply shortage—often referred to as the “silver squeeze.”

Key supply-side developments:

• China’s silver exports in October hit 660 tonnes, a historic high

• Inventories dropped to a 10-year low

• Tight supply conditions are now visible across markets, including London

The year 2025 marks the fifth consecutive annual supply deficit for silver. The shortage has tightened liquidity, increased leasing rates, and pushed up delivery volumes in U.S. CME vaults.

Adding to its importance, the U.S. government recently included silver in its list of critical minerals for 2025, cementing its strategic value.

Will Silver Cross the ₹2 Lakh Mark?

With silver prices already doubling this year and currently hovering above ₹1.80 lakh per kg on MCX, the big question is whether the metal can reach or surpass ₹2 lakh per kilogram.

Strong Structural Momentum

According to Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet, silver continues to display powerful structural momentum.
She notes that:

• Silver has risen for seven straight months

• The March futures contract recently hit ₹1,75,484, a record high

• International silver has crossed $56.53 per ounce, breaking long-term resistance levels

These signals reflect a firm long-term uptrend.

Industry Demand Strengthens the Case

Sachdeva highlights sustained demand from:

• Solar panel manufacturers

• Electronics and semiconductors

• Electric vehicles (EVs)

• Pharmaceuticals

Meanwhile, global inventories continue to decline, strengthening silver’s bullish fundamentals.

Brokerage Forecasts Up to ₹2.3 Lakh per Kg

Motilal Oswal expects silver’s upward trend to extend into 2026. The brokerage predicts:

• International prices could reach $75 per ounce

• Indian prices may rise to ₹2.3 lakh per kg, assuming no major changes in the rupee or import duties

Such projections keep investor hopes high for the ₹2 lakh milestone.

Technical View: Momentum Still Intact

Aamir Makda of Choice Broking believes silver remains firmly in an uptrend.
He identifies key levels:

• Support: ₹1,42,285 and ₹1,21,437

• Resistance: ₹2,00,000 per kg — a major psychological level

He advises traders to follow a “buy on dips” strategy as long as the bullish momentum continues.

What Should Investors Expect?

As 2025 draws to a close, silver and gold continue to dominate headlines. Whether silver touches the ₹2 lakh mark will depend on multiple factors:

• Global monetary policy shifts

• Industrial consumption trends

• Supply-side constraints

• Currency fluctuations

Analysts maintain that strong demand and tightening supply make the long-term outlook highly favorable.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations in this story are those of experts and brokerage firms. Investors should always seek guidance from certified professionals before making investment decisions.

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