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New military leaders claim they will liberate the West African country from the influence of drug traffickers. But can the junta realistically rid Guinea-Bissau of the scourge?"Zero tolerance in the fight against corruption and drug trafficking is our top priority," declared Guinea-Bissau's Interim President General Horta Inta-A upon taking office following a military coup that suspended the constitutional order in Guinea-Bissau. But speaking out about drug crime is still dangerous, and while reporting this story, DW encountered a wall of silence. Those willing to speak – often anonymously – painted a picture where political and military actors are barely distinguishable from the criminal structures they claim to fight. 2025 elections: Campaigns fueled by invisible donors Guinea-Bissau has long been considered one of the largest transit zones for cocaine on its way from South America to Europe. But the problem has intensified in recent years. Even before the coup, it was noticeable how lavishly the various candidates in the November 23 parliamentary and presidential elections ran their campaigns. In the capital Bissau, political factions drove convoys of expensive SUVs, professionally produced videos ran on LED screens, and rallies were staged with costly sound and light equipment — despite most candidates officially claiming to have limited funds. "Cocaine money has long been invested in Guinea-Bissau's elections, including the recent one," says Lucia Bird, head of the West Africa Observatory at the Geneva-based NGO Global Initiative Against Transnational Crime (GI-TOC), which published a report on "Cocaine Politics in Guinea-Bissau" in August 2025. She adds: "International drug traffickers have financially supported various candidates. Payments are usually made by local drug traffickers from Guinea-Bissau, though rarely by representatives of foreign cartels." Bird tells DW that in "exchange for campaign support, politicians offer traffickers protection." Ideal transit country – and a huge business Guinea-Bissau's long Atlantic coastline, poorly monitored airspace, and the Bijagos Archipelago consisting of 88 offshore islands, create ideal conditions for covert shipments of South American cocaine. GI-TOC estimates two to three tons of cocaine pass through Guinea-Bissau every month on their way to Europe. The value of these quantities is enormous: While prices per kilogram in West Africa are relatively low, they can reach up to €70,000 per kilo in cities like Berlin, Paris, or London. The drugs passing through Guinea-Bissau reach a monthly value of €210 million on the European market – a sum that exceeds the country's entire annual budget. Massive profits margins bring together a tight web of cartels, politicians, the military, and security forces. In the months leading up to the elections, Lucia Bird says state action against international drug trafficking noticeably decreased. "Instead, there have been some signs that local intermediaries in Guinea-Bissau were in need of money," she tells DW. New arrests, old patterns Since early 2025, arrests of opposition figures and civil actors accused of spreading state-endangering information reportedly increased. Some of these individuals had publicly denounced alleged drug connections within the security apparatus. Armando Lona still dares to publicly speak on the potential entanglements of the drug mafia with former president, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, and the new leadership under General Horta Inta-A. "Embalo's regime contributed to the strengthening of organized crime. During his presidency, we had two major drug seizures in Guinea-Bissau," Lona, the coordinator of the civil society human rights organization Frente Popular, tells DW. "The most recent one, in 2024, occurred in broad daylight at Guinea-Bissau's international airport. A plane loaded with nearly three tons of cocaine was intercepted. This was only possible thanks to the United States Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). The Embalo regime is not a good example of fighting drugs. And the new military rulers are no better." While other analysts urge caution in assessing the junta's ability to fight the drug trade, several sources, including an experienced investigator, described the situation to DW as a return to "old patterns" in which power struggles and drug flows are tightly interconnected. However, those who openly speak about the backgrounds of cocaine routes are, they emphasize, putting themselves at risk. How Guinea-Bissau became a narco-state The 2019 "Bacaizinho case" showed how closely leading politicians were linked to the drug trade. Malam Bacai Sanha Jr, son of former Guinea-Bissau President Malam Bacai Sanha, served as an advisor during his father's presidency and is currently serving an 80-month sentence in the US for international drug trafficking. Former Guinea-Bissau Navy chief Bubo Na Tchuto's dramatic arrest by US authorities in 2013 – when he was captured by US agents and Cape Verdean police in international waters off the coast of Cape Verde – is still considered one of the most glaring examples of how deeply cartels had infiltrated Guinea-Bissau's military structures. There have been repeated indications that parts of his network continued to operate afterward. Can Bissau shake "narco-state" label? Despite promises to free Guinea-Bissau from cartel influence, doubts remain as to whether the new junta can do so given the deep entrenchment of the cartels. Some ask whether such a shift is truly in the interest of the junta. Armando Lona from Frente Popular tells DW: "The military junta's claim to fight drug cartels is just an attempt to deceive the international community. Fortunately, international drug enforcement agencies know very well who is really fighting the drug trade – and who isn't." Edited by Cai Nebe