SBI: According to a State Bank of India analysis, global crude oil prices are predicted to drop sharply in 2026, with Brent crude probably dropping to around USD 50 per barrel by June of that year.
According to the analysis, increased stockpiles and worse global trends are making the forecast for crude oil prices in 2026 even more bleak than it is now.
It said “Crude oil prices to soften significantly in 2026 (to touch USD 50 /bbl by June 2026” .
According to the study, Brent crude oil prices may drop to an average of USD 55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, according to estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The accumulation of inventories, which is anticipated to put downward pressure on prices, is primarily responsible for this fall.
According to the analysis, the Indian crude basket, which has a correlation of 0.98 with Brent oil, is also anticipated to follow a similar softening pattern because of the close relationship between local and international crude prices.
Therefore, changes in the price of Brent crude point to more softening in the Indian basket in the months to come.
A moving average examination of Indian crude prices revealed that current levels are heading below both the 50-period and 200-period moving averages, according to the research. This technical trend suggests that prices may drop from the present level of USD 62.20 a barrel in the future.
India’s inflation dynamics are also anticipated to benefit from the anticipated drop in petroleum prices.
According to the research, gasoline prices at retail gas stations will be impacted by the dynamic daily pricing system and the expected decline in the Indian basket price to USD 53.31 per barrel.
According to the analysis, assuming a 48 percent passthrough, a 14 percent correction in the Indian basket during the fourth quarter of FY26 may push the CPI basket down by around 22 basis points.
It is anticipated that this deceleration would significantly reduce average CPI inflation for FY27 below 3.4%, offering significant respite from inflation as well.
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