After the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh, general elections are going to be held on 12 February 2026. The movement of political parties regarding this election has also intensified. As elections are approaching, internal disputes among political parties are also coming to light. However, amidst all this, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) seems to have the upper hand in the opinion polls.
Last month’s polls were showing a close contest between BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami. However, BNP has left Jamaat behind with 70 percent votes. People say that they will vote for the party of late Khaleda Zia. Whereas Jamaat got the support of only 19 percent people.
Let us tell you, Tariq Rahman’s return to his country after 17 years is a big turning point not only for Bangladeshi politics but also for BNP. Especially the return of Rehman has filled the party leaders and workers with enthusiasm.
According to an opinion poll by Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD), the National Citizen Party (NCP), formed after last year’s violence in Bangladesh and the toppling of Sheikh Hasina’s government, has received the support of only 2.9 percent people.
Poll watchers said that BNP is getting people’s support for many reasons. One aspect is that due to the death of former PM Khaleda Zia, BNP is also getting emotional support from the people.
The second aspect is that the party has been strengthened by the return of Zia’s son Tariq Rehman. Tariq has entered the electoral fray since his return, and its impact is visible on the people.
The third aspect is that after the fall of Hasina’s government, criminals have become rampant in Bangladesh, violence has crossed its peak, and the fundamentalist group is being held responsible for this.
An Intelligence Bureau official said that people know that if Jamaat comes to power, it will never become a free country because ISI will have complete control.
The common people of the country want peace, development and prosperity, not a country run by religion. The official said that they do not want a country like Iran at all, and people know what the situation will be like if the ISI-backed Jamaat comes to power.
It was also told in the opinion poll that many supporters of Sheikh Hasina are leaving Awami League and now supporting BNP. However, this could also be due to the absence of Awami League from the elections. Experts also say that Awami League has been banned from contesting elections, and perhaps that is why its supporters are standing with BNP.
One aspect of this is that within the last one year, many Awami League supporters and people close to Hasina have been targeted. Many cases of this also came to light last year. So perhaps BNP is a good option to avoid becoming a victim of any kind of violence and trouble.
According to the survey, 60 percent of Awami League supporters now say they will vote for BNP. 25 percent of Awami League supporters said that they would support Jamaat. The poll said that the Jatiya Party has got the support of only 1.4 percent people.
According to the poll, BNP is very much liked among women, and 71 percent of them say that they will vote for the party. Keep in mind that the first woman Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Khaleda Zia, was also from this party. BNP is still dominant in Rajshahi and Chittagong, and is expected to get 70 per cent of the votes here.
The survey, conducted between December 20 and January 1, also said that 77 percent people are confident that BNP will come to power. According to officials, it should be noted that Jamaat is rapidly losing its hold on the country. The politics of religion and blind support of ISI did not go in its favor.
Another official said that the Jamaat had fallen into the trap of the ISI and was losing people’s support by following its script. The official also said that most Bangladeshis want a peaceful country run by the Constitution, not Sharia law.
India will expect a BNP government in the neighboring country. After the death of Khaleda Zia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrote an emotional note which was sent to External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar had given it to Rahman.
Experts said the Indian government is talking to several people in the BNP leadership, and if the party comes to power, formal relations between the two countries would be good. Intelligence Bureau officials said that BNP being so ahead is a good sign.
However, he also warned that violence could increase, and the Jamaat-ISI duo would want the elections to be postponed. Officials said that both are trying to create an atmosphere of fear and chaos, so that the postponement of elections can be justified on the pretext that the atmosphere is not right.
In the last 18 days, there has been indiscriminate violence, due to which 6 Hindus have been targeted and killed. In the last 24 hours, two Hindu people were murdered by fundamentalists. Intelligence agencies have warned that such incidents may increase further, and violence will increase further before the elections.
An Intelligence Bureau official said there would be a need to remain on high alert at the border as there was every possibility that the ISI would try to ensure that this frenzy spreads to India as well.
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