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In the year 2014, when Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister for the first time, a new era began for the Bharatiya Janata Party. In the subsequent assembly elections, BJP planted flags even where the party had no political ground. Success was achieved from UP to North Eastern states. There was one state where BJP yearned for victory and kept yearning for it. That state was West Bengal. Since 2011, no party has had a run there. Mamata Banerjee has been the Chief Minister there for 14 years and this has been troubling the BJP.

Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress party had the majority in the assembly elections held in 2011, 2016 and 2021. This time Mamata Banerjee remained the Chief Minister. In West Bengal, neither the Chief Minister changed nor there was any change in the post of Assembly Speaker Biman Banerjee. This is the same state where BJP has remained marginalized despite the hard work of the Sangh for decades.

When assembly elections were held in 2011, BJP’s account was not even opened. In the year 2016, while there was a strong Modi wave in the country, Prime Minister Modi tried hard in West Bengal, all the central ministers of BJP were fielded but only 3 seats were won. Even in the 2021 elections, BJP showed its full strength but could not get more than 77 seats. At least 148 seats are required to win in the 294-seat assembly.

From 2011 till now, what has been the condition of BJP in the assemblies?

• 2011 assembly elections: 0
• 2016 assembly elections: 3
• 2021 assembly elections: 77

Till 2011, BJP was marginalized across the country. States like Gujarat had a strong position. After 2014, BJP came to the center and formed governments in many states. Zero seats in West Bengal in 2011 came as no surprise. Even in the 2016 assembly elections, there was a direct contest between the Left Front and Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, but BJP was not in a direct fight.

In 2016, for the first time, it was successful on 3 seats and the vote share was around 10 percent. The rise of BJP in 2021 was unexpected. It was even being claimed that Mamata Banerjee was bidding farewell. She even lost her election from Nandi Gram. BJP had hoisted the flag on 77 seats. Now BJP has its eyes on the 2026 assembly elections.

Why does BJP want victory in West Bengal?

This is the land of Dr. Syama Prasad Mukherjee, one of the founding members of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, but the BJP is weak here. There are many reasons for BJP’s weakness. BJP wants party dominance here. There are 292 assembly seats and 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal. If BJP becomes strong in West Bengal then its claim at the Center will be more solid.

BJP claims that law and order is bad in West Bengal. Bangladeshi infiltration in the state is causing demographic imbalance, which is a threat to the country. BJP says that Mamata Banerjee government does Muslim appeasement. Local people are not getting employment and are dependent on migration. Industries are in bad condition, common people are being exploited.

What is BJP doing to win West Bengal?

BJP has divided the state into 6 zones. Mangal Pandey, Sunil Bansal, Bhupendra Yadav and former Tripura CM Biplab Deb have been given important responsibilities. At the organizational level, efforts are being made to establish better coordination with the Sangh and to include more and more workers in the BJP. Efforts are being made to spread the anti-incumbency wave against the TMC government to the public. Despite these efforts, the path to victory is not easy for BJP in West Bengal.

Why is BJP weak in numbers game?

BJP had registered a lead in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. BJP had got 18 seats, but in 2024 this number reduced to 12. Whereas Trinamool Congress won 29 seats, while Congress got 1 seat. TMC became stronger, while BJP became weaker.

Why does BJP become weak?

• Hindi Imposition: Anjan Dutta, lives in Kolkata. When this question was asked, he replied, ‘Mamata Banerjee is Bengali. Their slogan is Maa, Mati Manush. Bengalis feel connected to him. BJP has no such face. BJP tries to impose Hindi, exploits Hindi culture. Bengalis consider this an attack on their culture. The intelligent class of West Bengal keeps distance from BJP for this reason.
• Discord: There are many factions in BJP. From Dilip Ghosh to Samik Bhattacharya there is a rift with each other. Suvendu Adhikari has come from TMC, questions arise about his acceptance in BJP. Local BJP workers are upset with him. Interestingly, he is the Leader of Opposition in the Assembly but was once a close associate of Mamata Banerjee.
• Population: In West Bengal, BJP contests elections on the issue of Hindutva. 27 percent of the Muslim population runs away from BJP. There are 43 assembly seats in West Bengal where Muslims play a decisive role. There are 135 seats where Muslim voters can decide victory or defeat. About 66 percent Muslims live in Murshidabad, 51 percent in Malda and 49 percent in North Dinajpur. Muslims are also in a strong position in North-South Parganas. Here BJP performs poorly. There are 22 assembly seats in Murshidabad, 12 in Malda and 9 in Cooch Behar. There are 33 assembly seats in North Parganas, 31 assembly seats in South Parganas. BJP becomes weak here. To win, BJP should get double the seats.
• Mamata Banerjee: Such a challenge to the BJP leadership in West Bengal, which the top leadership is unable to find. Here BJP does not have any leader of the stature of Mamata Banerjee, who has wide popularity. Every time elections are held on Modi’s face only. Mamta Banerjee has the image of ‘Didi’ in West Bengal. She is popular, talks about Bengali identity, gives slogan of save Bengal from outsiders. They have also run schemes like Lakshmi Bhandar and also give pension. Muslim voters mobilize in his name and even parties like Furfura Sharif-Asaduddin Owaisi are unable to make inroads. At present, caste equations collapse in front of Mamata Banerjee.
• Outsider vs Bengali Culture: Sarthak Chaudhary is a Bengali singer. He says, ‘Bengalis are protectionists about their culture. Even people who like Hindutva consider BJP as outsiders. The reason is that the local leadership of BJP is weak here. All the big leaders in the assembly elections are from outside West Bengal. People who like Bengali language and culture do not like this. BJP’s vote percentage has decreased in the 2024 elections, seats have decreased. This may also be visible in 2026.