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NEW DELHI: Speculation over the next leadership of India’s Intelligence Bureau has intensified as the extended tenure of incumbent director Tapan Kumar Deka moves closer to its outer limit, with senior intelligence officials and bureaucratic observers increasingly pointing to his colleague, Mahesh Dixit, as a leading contender to take over the country’s premier domestic intelligence agency.

The IB, apart from generating security intel for which a lot of years of efforts and vast resources are put in place, also gathers political intel. The IB’s budget has seen a steady upward trajectory over the last five years, reflecting the government’s sustained focus on internal security and intelligence capabilities.

In 2021-22, the IB was allocated about Rs 2,839 crore. This rose to roughly Rs 3,168 crore in 2022-23, marking an increase of nearly 12 percent. The upward trend continued in 2023-24, when the allocation climbed to around Rs 3,418 crore, a year-on-year rise of close to 8 percent.

The most significant jump came in 2024-25. While the Budget Estimate for that year stood at about Rs 3,824 crore, the Revised Estimate was later pegged higher at approximately Rs 3,966 crore, indicating additional provisioning during the financial year. This represented an increase of over 16 percent compared to the previous year’s allocation, and was one of the sharpest single-year rises for the agency in recent times. Taken together, the IB’s budget has increased by more than Rs 1,000 crore over the past five years, amounting to a rise of roughly 37 percent.

Born in February 1963, Deka, a 1988-batch Himachal Pradesh cadre IPS officer, was appointed Director of the IB on 1 July 2022 for a fixed two-year term. Upon reaching the age of superannuation in mid-2024, he was granted a one-year extension in public interest by the Appointments Committee of the Cabinet, followed by a second extension in May 2025, allowing him to continue in office beyond standard tenure norms. His continued extension places him among the longest-serving IB chiefs in recent years.

With Deka’s tenure now running on extensions rather than a fixed term, attention within the security establishment has shifted to succession planning. Sources indicated that Dixit, a 1993-batch Maharashtra cadre IPS officer currently serving as Special Director in the Intelligence Bureau, has emerged as a prominent name in this context.

Dixit has spent a significant portion of his career within the intelligence and internal security apparatus and is regarded as part of the Bureau’s senior operational leadership. In September 2024, the 1967-born Dixit was promoted from Additional Director to Special Director. Among other responsibilities, he handled the sensitive post of Additional Director (Srinagar) overseeing Jammu and Leh. Over the years, he has managed several sensitive portfolios, including preparations and intelligence measures ahead of the abrogation of Article 370 during which he worked closely with Home Minister Amit Shah.

Transitions at the helm of the Intelligence Bureau are typically preceded by a phase in which senior officers assume expanded operational responsibilities to ensure continuity at the top of the organisation. While no official announcement has been made and the government has not indicated a formal timeline for appointing the next Director, Dixit’s seniority, central experience, and current positioning within the IB have led to growing expectations that he could be in line for the post once Deka demits office.

The Director of the Intelligence Bureau plays a pivotal role in coordinating domestic intelligence, advising the Ministry of Home Affairs, and shaping responses to terrorism, extremism, and internal security threats. Any change in leadership is therefore closely watched within the security establishment both within the country and abroad.