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Indian Stock Market: Domestic equity benchmarks began Friday’s trading session on a cautious note as investors carefully balanced positive global developments with domestic technical resistance levels. Early trade reflected mild nervousness, despite supportive international signals, as traders chose to remain selective ahead of upcoming market events.

Market Opening Snapshot

At around 9:18 am, the BSE Sensex was trading at 82,202.63, registering a decline of 104.74 points or 0.13 percent. Meanwhile, the NSE Nifty 50 hovered near 25,255.40, down by 34.50 points or 0.14 percent. The subdued opening highlighted a wait-and-watch approach among market participants as they assessed global macroeconomic cues and near-term domestic risks.

Global Market Influence

Global markets offered a mixed but generally supportive backdrop. Asian equities traded higher, taking cues from overnight gains in U.S. markets. Investors appeared relieved after the Bank of Japan decided to pause any immediate policy changes ahead of Japan’s snap elections scheduled for February 8. The central bank maintained its interest rate at 0.75 percent while revising economic growth projections upward, signaling confidence in the Japanese economy.

Market experts noted a renewed interest in the so-called tariff optimism trade, where investors anticipate softer trade policies following recent pauses by the U.S. administration. Adding to global risk-on sentiment, precious metals continued their strong rally, with gold prices scaling record highs near USD 4,900 per ounce, reflecting ongoing hedging against economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Investor Strategy And Near-Term Volatility

Despite the positive global tone, experts believe Indian markets may lack strong domestic triggers in the immediate term. Strength, if any, is expected to flow primarily from global risk appetite rather than local catalysts. Market participants are also mindful of increased volatility ahead, as January witnessed consistent foreign portfolio investor selling.

The upcoming week adds another layer of complexity, with Monday being a market holiday due to Republic Day. This short trading week means investors will head directly into the monthly derivatives expiry on Tuesday, prompting traders to reduce positions and manage risk more conservatively.

Domestic Sentiment And Institutional Support

On the domestic front, sentiment continues to find support from institutional investors, even as foreign investors remain cautious. Analysts expect markets to trade in a narrow range with a mildly positive bias, tracking overnight gains in U.S. equities and stable Asian market performance.

Short-term sentiment has improved slightly following the previous session’s rebound. However, overall risk appetite remains selective due to lingering uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy decisions and potential tariff measures, particularly those linked to countries importing Russian oil.

Technical Outlook For Nifty And Bank Nifty

From a technical perspective, the Nifty index remains in a consolidation phase with a modest positive bias. The index is holding comfortably above its key support zone, which lies between 25,120 and 25,160. A decisive break below the psychological 25,000 level could open the door to further downside.

As long as Nifty sustains above 25,300 and maintains support near its 200-day moving average, analysts see potential for a gradual move toward the 25,600 level. This outlook keeps the broader trend mildly bullish, albeit with intermittent volatility.

In the banking space, Bank Nifty has reclaimed its 50-day exponential moving average, indicating a shift toward a neutral-to-bullish structure. However, the resistance zone between 59,600 and 59,700 remains a critical hurdle. A successful breakout above this range could pave the way for a move toward the 60,000 mark in the near term.

Rupee Stability And Volatility Indicators

The Indian rupee has shown signs of stabilization after testing record lows near 91.72 against the U.S. dollar. Currently trading around the 91.50–91.60 range, the currency has benefited from improved risk sentiment and possible central bank intervention. This stability provides temporary relief on imported inflation concerns, though sensitivity to capital flows remains elevated.

Meanwhile, India VIX has moderated slightly, suggesting easing near-term volatility. However, experts caution that volatility could resurface quickly amid global policy uncertainty and upcoming derivative expiries.

Overall Market Outlook

In summary, Indian equity markets are likely to remain cautious in the near term, balancing global optimism with domestic technical challenges and event-driven volatility. While the broader bias remains mildly positive, investors may continue to adopt a selective and disciplined approach until clearer directional cues emerge.