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The scene is set for an epic battle between Andy Burnham - one of the most ambitious Labour politicians of his generation - and Reform UK if the present Mayor of Greater Manchester is permitted to stand in the Gorton and Denton by-election. If Labour's National Executive Committee (NEC) grants Mr Burnham permission to stand this will fuel speculation that he could succeed Sir Keir Starmer as the next Labour leader and Prime Minister.

A Reform UK spokesman said the party plans to "give it our all" in the by-election triggered by Labour's Andrew Gwynne stepping down.

He said: "This by-election is by no means a certainty for Labour, the Left-wing Greens will split their vote and we will be the challenger."

The Labour leadership will face uproar if Mr Burnham is barred but it will not welcome the prospect of renewed leadership speculation ahead of the May elections and the challenge of a by-election for the Manchester mayoralty.

Reform came second in the July 2024 election in the Greater Manchester seat, winning 5,142 votes with Labour taking 18,555.

Mr Burnham set out his rationale for wanting to return to Westminster in a letter to the NEC running to nearly 700 words.

The mayor claimed there is a "direct threat to everything Greater Manchester has always been about from a brand of politics which seeks to pit people against each other".

Stating that this "poison" must not be allowed to enter the city region, he said: "I see this by-election as the frontline of that fight for the Manchester Way and I feel I owe it to a city which has given me so much to lead it from the front, despite the risks involved."

While pledging to "run a hopeful and unifying campaign", he wrote that he felt the "need to go back" to Westminster because "Manchester won't be able to be everything it should be" unless similar changes are made at a national level to the "different way of doing things" he believes he has pioneered as mayor.

In a clear sign he favours greater state control over key utilities, he said: "When so many people in a city-region like this are struggling to afford the daily basics, they are surely right to question why the country gave away control of them in the first place, in whose interests it is run and why no government of any colour has corrected these things for them."

Stating that he wants Labour to go "further and faster", he pledged: "I would be there to support the work of the Government, not undermine it, and I have passed on this assurance to the Prime Minister."

A Labour MP predicted that if Mr Burnham makes it to Westminster "there is clearly a leadership challenge in the offing, whatever Andy says"

The MP added that if Mr Burnham cannot win the by-election that is "the end" of his political career, adding: "It's going to be difficult now for the Starmer forces to stop him but will he win the seat... How popular is Andy Burnham - is he really King of the North?"

Conservative MP Matt Vickers said: "Labour are descending into open warfare over who should be their leader. The public deserve better than this psychodrama. The Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch are focused on the real challenges facing Britain and building a stronger economy, stronger borders and a stronger country."