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Whenever a Conservative MP defects to Reform the average IQ of both parties rises. It's a political chestnut as old as the hills - just substitute current derided party as applicable... and hey presto, a witty dinner party gag which, delivered with just enough of a knowing smile, is guaranteed to make you look urbane, informed and dripping with cynicism de jour.

And, until this morning, said gag was fabulously apt for use with Mr Farage's Reform UK - not an outfit you could ever accuse of being overly weighed down with heavyweight intellects. What may yet weigh down Reform however is heavyweight egos. Robert Jenrick for example is not a man troubled by undue modesty. (I'm told they had to widen the doors at last year's Tory conference to squeeze his ego in.)

But even Jenrick will find even his planet sized self-regard dwarfed by Nigel Farage's, which sits like a supermassive black hole at the centre of Reform UK hungrily devouring all challengers until they disappear over the political event horizon.

Which is what makes Suella Braverman's defection today so puzzling.

Jenrick frankly was no loss to the Tories. Reasonably clever he might be but in all honesty he made most voters cringe with his teeth-grindingly embarrassing tough-guy stunts.

I know one Tory big beast who pinned his colours to the Jenrick mast (I did try to warn him...) only to find himself utterly shafted. We haven't spoken since the defection as I can't face the super-awks phone call but he must be fuming.

But, the point is, Jenrick always came across as a bit of an odious creep to the average voter and as such was no great loss to Kemi Badenoch.

Her unveiling him as a traitor hours before he could defect was an object lesson in great politics too.

But today's Braverman defection feels different, like a tipping point has been reached, like the dial has really shifted.

Of course the Tory machine (and indeed the bots) have been quick to say good riddance... but I'm not so sure. Braverman's actual performance was iffy at best yes, but she was well-liked by the rank and file Tory voter.

She said the right things at least and felt, in St Margaret's words, like "one of us".

It's why even when she was doing sod all to end the small boats crisis she was still chalking-up favourable approval ratings among Tory voters - especially the older ones who can actually be a*sed to walk to a polling station and vote.

And she did it again today. Standing alongside Farage she said: "We can't even defend ourselves, and our nation stands weak and humiliated on the world stage. So we stand at a crossroads.

"We can either continue down this route of managed decline to weakness and surrender. Or we can fix our country, reclaim our power, rediscover our strength."

Tell me a Tory those lines aren't going to stir the blood of?

Quite.

Nigel Farage now has eight MPs in Parliament - one shy of the SNP.

Anyone fancy a wager that won't have at least doubled by this time next year?

The troubling thing for loyal Tories is that Kemi Badenoch, after a difficult few months and an awful lot of stumbling around at the despatch box, is starting to look like the real deal.

But she has a huge job ahead of her and the voters know it.

Meanwhile with every passing day the prospect of Nigel Farage rattling the keys to No10 seems an absolute inevitability.