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US-Iran Tensions: The United States and Iran are trading warnings as US naval forces move into the Arabian Sea. Regional powers are pushing for diplomacy to prevent a military flare-up, but tensions are rising.

US President Donald Trump threatened Tehran on January 29, saying that “time is running out” for Iran to return to negotiations on a new nuclear deal. He added that the naval forces he has deployed are larger than those sent to Venezuela before US special forces attempted to capture President Nicolas Maduro on January 3.

Iran responded sharply. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iranian forces were ready “with their fingers on the trigger” and would respond “immediately and powerfully” to any US attack.

This surge in tension comes seven months after US bombers struck Iranian nuclear sites during Tehran’s 12-day conflict with Israel last year. Iran retaliated with missile strikes on Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base, the largest US facility in the Gulf, and targeted several Israeli cities during the war.

Earlier this month, Trump told Iranian protesters that “help” was on the way, hinting at possible airstrikes, but he later backtracked after Tehran “assured” him that arrested protesters would not face execution.

The United States and Iran have long-standing demands that are largely unchanged despite the growing tension. Understanding these demands is important to following the ongoing standoff.

What the United States wants

The United States has pressured Iran for many years, first over the 1979 hostage crisis and more recently over alleged human rights violations during large-scale protests that Tehran reportedly suppressed with force. Today, the main concern is Iran’s nuclear program and its ballistic missiles.

Washington and its allies view Iran’s nuclear ambitions with suspicion. Tehran insists that its program is civilian and is meant for energy production.

Under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran agreed to limit uranium enrichment to 3.67 percent and maintain stockpiles below 300 kilograms, which is enough for civilian energy but far from weapons-grade. Weapons-grade uranium starts at 90 percent enrichment, while 60 percent is considered weapons-ready but not fully weaponised.

Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA in 2018 and reimposed sanctions, despite Iran’s attempts to stay compliant. The former Joe Biden administration also maintained most of these sanctions, leaving Iran under severe economic pressure.

By May 2025, the IAEA said Iran had stockpiled more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent. While still below weapons-grade, it alarmed the United States and Israel and resulted in airstrikes in June.

There has been a consistent lobby in Washington arguing that Iran achieving nuclear weapon capability is a threat to the United States and the wider world.

US demands include a complete halt to nuclear weapon development, cessation of all uranium enrichment and surrender of existing enriched uranium.

Iran’s missile program is also a major concern. Its Emad, Khorramshahr, Ghadr, Sejjil and Soumar missiles reach distances between 1,700 and 2,500 kilometres, putting Israel and US bases across the Middle East in range.

The United States insists that Iran reduce both the number and range of these missiles to lower the threat level in the region.

Iran’s alliances with governments, armed movements and religious groups, often referred to as the “axis of resistance”, are central to its regional influence. US allies have struck these groups in recent years, but some, like Iraq-based Kataib Hezbollah, are active and have warned of “total war” if Washington attacks Iran.

The United States wants Iran to end its support for these groups to reduce regional instability.

What Iran wants

Iran faces immense economic pressure from sanctions. Oil exports have fallen by up to 80 percent since 2018, while the currency has crashed, inflation has surged and the middle class has shrunk.

Iran’s demands focus on lifting these sanctions, maintaining its nuclear program and preserving its missile capabilities. While Tehran officially claims its nuclear program is civilian, recent pressures have pushed some factions to consider faster development of nuclear weapons.

Iran wants the ability to enrich uranium under controlled limits, retain its ballistic missile program and negotiate on its terms before allowing IAEA inspections, citing perceived bias in previous reports.

Regional influence is also central. Despite setbacks, Iran’s leadership believes its alliances and ideological reach across the Middle East can endure.

How close are we to war?

The risk of conflict depends on the ongoing negotiations and Trump’s strategy. Regional US allies, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have told both Tehran and Washington that they won’t allow their airspaces to be used for attacks on Iran. Qatar has attempted to mediate a diplomatic solution.

Meanwhile, the United States is strengthening its military presence. The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is now in the Arabian Sea. Last June, Trump ordered airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, including heavily protected facilities at Fordow.

It will take an enormous diplomatic effort to see a negotiation of any real meaning. Iran is unlikely to trust Trump due to his record of abandoning deals, and European allies are cautious about supporting his approach.

Despite threats, Iran may still seek talks to mitigate the crippling impact of sanctions. The economic malaise is real, and leadership has few options but to negotiate with the United States to lift sanctions. Failing that, the economy could collapse and instability could follow.

Trump may continue using pressure tactics, including potential control of Iran’s Kharg Island oil facilities, to force concessions. While the risk of war exists, Washington and Tehran appear locked in a high-stakes game of leverage, with the Middle East watching closely.