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Lyndon Johnson was sworn in as president after John Kennedy’s assassination on the very aircraft the slain leader’s body, as per the US laws governing presidential succession. Rajiv Gandhi was made the prime minister, plucking him out of the air, as it were, with the Constitution being set aside. In both cases urgency was a factor.

In Ajit Pawar’s case, there is no such contingency but the political ramifications of his death in an air crash in Maharashtra’s Baramati on Wednesday, January 28, has triggered informed speculation and also by the man on the street. This started even before his body’s post-mortem commenced. There are several strands worth looking at and each has its significance.

Before the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) decides at its policy making body, which would likely be after the shock of Ajit Pawar’s death wears off, the voters have a chance to decide where the party stood in the pecking order in the three-party ruling alliance that rules Maharashtra – the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. 

For, on February 7, as many as 12 zilla parishads and 125 panchayat samithis go to vote, for which candidates and alliances have been decided. The day before he died, the candidates were frozen by the state Election Commission, that being the last day for withdrawals. Ajit Pawar was on his campaign and was reaching Baramati in a chartered plane. 

The results, which could dictate which candidates and party is chosen, could very well change or strengthen the dynamics within the Mahayuti alliance. It is likely that a sympathy wave – so common to Indian elections where emotions rule – could favour the NCP. One only needs to wait till February 7. There are no star campaigners; the one who was is no more.

Of the possible scenarios, one is the likely realignment within the larger Pawar family of which Sharad Pawar is the patriarch and nephew Ajit was a member who broke away from the uncle-founded party and distanced from the family. In the process, post-split, the larger family kept the strands of relationships. That could rebond and impact the political outcomes.

If that happens, the Mahayuti matrix would change. Either the patriarch too enters the Mahayuti or the party exits the ruling alliance. The latter would lead to a tumult of uncertain consequences. If the former, who would take Ajit Pawar’s place? Supriya Sule or an outsider so aspirations in the cadre soars?  

Or, would Ajit Pawar’s party split and one chunk merge with the BJP? Would that be sufficient to keep the Mahayuti in power? The key would be in the numbers to officially qualify without attracting the anti-defection laws. The BJP is expected to make a play to net those fishes and the Sharad Pawar faction would be relegated further to the backbenches.