The Reserve Bank of India on Friday kept interest rates unchanged and maintained a neutral policy stance, signalling continuity even as the economic backdrop turns more supportive.
The decision follows a week of positive developments, including higher government spending outlined in the Union Budget and fresh momentum on trade ties with the United States and the European Union.
While the central bank expressed confidence in domestic growth prospects, it also flagged evolving inflation dynamics amid global trade uncertainty and financial market volatility. Together, these signals will shape how borrowers, investors and businesses read the RBI’s next moves.
Here is a quick look at the likely key takeaways from the MPC today: Repo rate: Held at 5.25%, neutral stance retained
The RBI kept the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and maintained a “neutral” policy stance, signalling that interest rates are likely to remain supportive for some time. The decision comes amid an improved growth backdrop following higher government spending outlined in the Union Budget, the announcement of an India–US trade deal, and progress on the India–EU free trade agreement, allowing the central bank to stay on hold while assessing evolving conditions.
Also Read: India's trade deals give Sanjay Malhotra & Co cover to hold repo rates steady at 5.25%
GDP outlook: Growth forecast nudged higher
The RBI set its real GDP growth expectation for 2025–26 at 7.4%, marginally higher than its previous estimate, signalling confidence in domestic demand despite persistent global trade risks and financial market uncertainty.
While the central bank continues to flag a moderation in momentum towards the latter part of the year, the updated projection places growth above both its earlier quarterly trajectory and the government’s economic adviser’s forecast of 6.8%–7.2% for the coming year.
Also Read: Central bank nudges forecast higher, upgrades early FY27 outlook
Inflation outlook: Disinflation assumptions reset
The MPC raised its inflation projections, signalling a shift away from its earlier disinflationary outlook. CPI inflation for FY27 has been revised upward, with Q1 and Q2 now seen at 4% and 4.2%, respectively. For FY26, overall inflation is projected at 2.1%, with Q4 inflation estimated at 3.2%, reflecting a reassessment of price trends compared with the December policy round.
The decision follows a week of positive developments, including higher government spending outlined in the Union Budget and fresh momentum on trade ties with the United States and the European Union.
While the central bank expressed confidence in domestic growth prospects, it also flagged evolving inflation dynamics amid global trade uncertainty and financial market volatility. Together, these signals will shape how borrowers, investors and businesses read the RBI’s next moves.
Here is a quick look at the likely key takeaways from the MPC today: Repo rate: Held at 5.25%, neutral stance retained
The RBI kept the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and maintained a “neutral” policy stance, signalling that interest rates are likely to remain supportive for some time. The decision comes amid an improved growth backdrop following higher government spending outlined in the Union Budget, the announcement of an India–US trade deal, and progress on the India–EU free trade agreement, allowing the central bank to stay on hold while assessing evolving conditions.
Also Read: India's trade deals give Sanjay Malhotra & Co cover to hold repo rates steady at 5.25%
GDP outlook: Growth forecast nudged higher
The RBI set its real GDP growth expectation for 2025–26 at 7.4%, marginally higher than its previous estimate, signalling confidence in domestic demand despite persistent global trade risks and financial market uncertainty.
While the central bank continues to flag a moderation in momentum towards the latter part of the year, the updated projection places growth above both its earlier quarterly trajectory and the government’s economic adviser’s forecast of 6.8%–7.2% for the coming year.
Also Read: Central bank nudges forecast higher, upgrades early FY27 outlook
Inflation outlook: Disinflation assumptions reset
The MPC raised its inflation projections, signalling a shift away from its earlier disinflationary outlook. CPI inflation for FY27 has been revised upward, with Q1 and Q2 now seen at 4% and 4.2%, respectively. For FY26, overall inflation is projected at 2.1%, with Q4 inflation estimated at 3.2%, reflecting a reassessment of price trends compared with the December policy round.
