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The Election Commission has announced elections for 37 seats of Rajya Sabha. Candidates have to nominate till March 5 and voting will take place on March 16. Out of these 37 seats, 2 seats of Haryana and 1 seat of Himachal are also falling vacant. If we look at the numerical strength in these two states, Congress and BJP will get 1 seat each in Haryana and Congress will get one seat in Himachal, but the path for Congress is not going to be easy. Bharatiya Janata Party can increase the problems of Congress in both the states. In the earlier Rajya Sabha elections held in Himachal Pradesh, Congress was defeated by BJP and the situation reached the point of falling of the government.

One seat each from Himachal and Haryana is considered safe for the Congress party. According to numbers, Congress can easily win one seat each in both the states of Himachal and Haryana, but Congress leaders are still worried. The Congress party had earlier lost the Rajya Sabha seat in 2024 despite having the required number of MLAs and the BJP had cleverly made its candidate win. The Congress party can no longer take such risks.

What happened in 2024?

The Congress party has faced a crushing defeat in the Rajya Sabha elections held in 2024. Party candidate Abhishek Manu Singhvi could not win the Rajya Sabha elections despite majority. Out of 40 Congress MLAs, 6 MLAs voted for BJP candidate Harsh Mahajan and both the candidates got 34-34 votes.

After this, Harsh Mahajan was declared the winner through lottery system. The party took action against 6 MLAs and showed them the way out of the party. After this, by-elections were held and the Congress party again reached 40 MLAs. Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu was successful in saving his government.

Congress’s troubles in Himachal

In Himachal Pradesh, Congress has 40 MLAs and BJP has 28 MLAs. For majority, votes of 35 MLAs are required and Congress has 5 more than the majority and BJP has 7 MLAs less. BJP is planning to make the easy path of Congress difficult. BJP is preparing to field candidates despite not having majority. According to reports, if Congress gives ticket to an outsider leader then BJP can also field one of its local candidates.

In Himachal, the names of Congress’ Pratibha Patil, Anand Sharma and Maharashtra MP Rajni Patil are in the race for the ticket. In such a situation, if the party wants to send Rajni Patil or any other leader from Delhi to Rajya Sabha through Himachal, then BJP will make the path difficult. In 2024, BJP had defeated the Congress candidate despite having only 25 MLAs.

In the meeting of BJP MLAs held before the budget session, there was discussion about fielding candidates in the Rajya Sabha elections. Most of the MLAs talked about fielding candidates. If BJP fields a candidate, it can give another chance to sitting MP Indu Goswami. Apart from this, many local names are also in discussion. BJP can once again raise the issue of outsider versus local in this election.

50-50 in Haryana

Elections are to be held on two seats in Haryana. If we look at the number of MLAs, the matter appears fifty-fifty. One seat can go to BJP and one seat to opposition Congress. However, BJP may change the equation at the last moment. Both the vacant seats are with BJP and BJP is looking at the possibility of winning these two seats again.

The total strength of Haryana Assembly is 90. To win one seat, votes of 31 MLAs will be required. Congress has 37 MLAs and BJP has 47 MLAs. Apart from this, BJP has also got the support of 3 independent candidates. If BJP has to win both the seats then cross voting will have to be done from at least 7 Congress MLAs. However, this task is very difficult for BJP but BJP has got it done earlier in Himachal. In such a situation, the path of Congress may be difficult.

Why is Congress worried?

The Congress party is troubled in Haryana because there is a lot of factionalism within the party. The party was not able to make anyone the leader of opposition till about a year after the assembly elections held in 2024. In the end Bhupendra Singh Hooda had to be chosen. The biggest challenge before the party will be to keep its MLAs united. Apart from party in-charge BK Hariprasad, Jairam Ramesh and Pawan Kheda, Congress can bet on faces like Udaybhan and Rao Dan Singh, but it will be very difficult for the party to reach consensus on any one name.

A major reason for Congress’s trouble is the Rajya Sabha elections held in 2022. A dramatic incident was seen in this election. Congress party had given ticket to Ajay Maken but Karthikeya Sharma filed nomination as an independent candidate and BJP supported him. During Majdan, some Congress MLAs were accused of showing votes to agents but despite Congress’s objection, the votes were not canceled and Karthikeya Sharma won the election. In 2024, BJP defeated Abhishek Manu Singhvi in ​​Himachal. In such a situation, despite having majority, Congress is worried.