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Once again there is speculation that the Central Government may announce an increase in the Dearness Allowance (DA) for Central Government employees and pensioners for January-June 2026 before Holi. However, a look at the pattern of the last five years shows that announcements before Holi are not common — especially when the festival falls in early March. After the announcement of 3 percent increase on October 1, 2025 for the July-December cycle, central government employees and pensioners are currently getting 58 percent DA. The upcoming change will be the first DA hike outside the 7th Pay Commission period, which formally ended on December 31, 2025. Employees and pensioners of all central government departments are expecting a 2 percent DA increase in the next change. With this, DA will increase from 58 percent to 60 percent of the basic salary, which will be applicable from January 1, 2026.

DA was announced during Holi and Diwali in the last 5 years

Something like this pattern is visible

• The July-December DA hike has mostly been announced before Diwali from 2021.
• The January-June DA hike has generally happened after Holi, especially when Holi falls in the first half of March.
• The only major exception was 2024, when the March DA was announced on March 7, much before Holi, on March 25.
• In 2025, Holi was on March 14, but the DA hike came almost two weeks later, on March 28.
• This suggests that expectations of a DA hike before Holi in 2026 may not match recent trends.

Why does the timing of Holi matter?

The idea that DA is linked to Holi comes from the government's practice of announcing two changes every year — one around March and the other around October/November. Although the second hike has often coincided with Diwali in recent years, the March announcement has not always been made before Holi. When Holi falls early in March, the cabinet decision usually comes towards the end of the month. So, unless there is some strange acceleration in the decision making process, the chances of an announcement after Holi are high.

First DA increase after 7th Pay Commission

The upcoming DA revision of January-June 2026 is important because it will be the first increase after the end of the 7th Pay Commission. The 8th Pay Commission has started work and it is expected that it will submit its report around March-April next year. However, even after submission, it may take a long time to be implemented. Based on past experience, central government employees and pensioners may have to wait till late 2027 or early 2028 to see the actual salary revision under the 8th Pay Commission. Till then, DA revisions will continue to provide some relief from inflation.

Demand to merge DA with basic pay

Amidst this delay, the employees union and National Council-JCM (NC-JCM) are demanding that the existing DA which is now 58 per cent should be merged with the basic pay. They argue that since it will take a long time for the next pay commission to be implemented, merging DA with basic pay will provide structural relief and help reset the inflation adjustment base. However, there has been no official indication from the government that such a step is being considered at this time.

What should employees expect?

The increase in DA in January-June 2026 will be decided by the changes in All India Consumer Price Index (AICPI) data. The final percentage increase will depend on the inflation trend of the previous months. Although festive expectations always create excitement, five years of data shows that Holi does not always dictate the announcement of March DA. For now, central government employees and pensioners may have to wait for the Cabinet decision and perhaps for Holi to pass before getting clarity on the next DA hike.