Top News

The increasing military tension between America and Iran has created a stir in the global oil market. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which is an important route for the supply of about 20% of the world's crude oil. A large quantity of LNG also passes through this route. If this route is disrupted, global supply could be seriously affected.

Brokerage's scary prediction

DBS Bank has warned that if Hormuz is completely closed, the price of Brent crude could reach $ 100 to 150 per barrel. At the same time, Goldman Sachs says that if the supply remains affected for five weeks, then the prices can touch the level of $ 100. Meanwhile, Brent crude has already jumped 13% to cross $ 82 per barrel, which is the highest level since January 2025. JPMorgan Chase and Bernstein have also said that if the conflict prolongs, prices may go above $100.

Big impact on emerging countries including India

India depends on this route for about 50% of its oil imports. Every day about 26 lakh barrels of oil comes to India through Hormuz. Prolonged supply disruptions could prove costly for import-dependent countries like India. According to ING Group, just a 10% increase in oil prices could increase the current account deficit of emerging economies by 0.40 to 0.60 percent. This will put pressure on both inflation and economic growth.

Even strategic reserves are not enough?

The US could theoretically use its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but analysts believe that even this step would not be enough to offset the losses if the crisis flares up completely. Experts say that at present the direction of oil prices completely depends on the US-Iran tension. Until there are clear signs of normalization of the situation, the rise in crude oil prices and instability in the market may continue.