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The mild phrasing in the Indian Meteorological Department’s forecast that this summer will be “hotter-than-normal” with an “above-normal number of heatwave days” belies the grave consequences of the coming summer heat.

The forecast predicts heatwaves lasting 10-14 days longer in many parts of the country than the usual eight to 15 days per summer season.

With Assembly elections scheduled in several states next month, the forecast signals a profound risk to India’s democratic life besides the obvious tangible threats to food, water, power and public health.

To see why, it is worth revisiting India’s 2024 general election – which was also held during summer in which India endured brutal heat. During the sixth phase on May 25, 2024, daytime temperaturesin several poll-bound regions breached 45 degrees celsius.

Candidates, election officials, campaign managers, and field reporters fainted or fell sick. The substantial 1.6% drop in voter turnout in 2024 from the 2019 polls has been attributed, in part, to the intense summer heat.

This was not entirely unforeseen since the Meteorological Department had already forecast double the number of heatwave days that summer. In fact, the heat had an impact on the elections despite some mitigative measures being undertaken such as political parties shifting their campaign efforts to early mornings or late evenings, and provisions made for water and shade at...

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