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The heat of the war raging in West Asia has now started reaching our and your pockets directly. The increasing military tension between America, Israel and Iran has created a deep energy crisis at the global level. When this conflict started on 28 February, hardly anyone would have thought that it would affect the economy of the entire world so soon. Within just one month, there has been a jump of almost 60 percent in the prices of Brent crude oil. Crude oil, which was selling around $70 per barrel at the beginning of the war, crossed the dangerous level of $113.75 on March 23.

Strait of Hormuz stopped the world's breath

The increase in crude oil prices in the last 30 days has broken the back of the entire global supply chain. The 'Strait of Hormuz' is at the center of this huge crisis. This sea route is considered the backbone for crude oil trade globally. Due to the current military activities and the atmosphere of tension, the movement of cargo ships through this important waterway has been severely disrupted. When supplies stop worldwide, prices naturally skyrocket. This is the reason why there is great restlessness and turmoil in all the energy markets of the world.

Production boom from Qatar to Iraq

This interruption in supply is not limited only to transportation routes, but the situation has become serious in major oil producing countries also. Qatar's important energy facilities have been heavily damaged due to recent attacks by Iran. The direct result of this is that there has been a huge decline of about 17 percent in Qatar's total capacity to export Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). At the same time, the news coming from Iraq is making the situation even more worrying. Iraq has declared 'force majeure' (state of emergency) in all its oil fields operated by foreign companies. The situation there can be gauged from the fact that the production in Basra Oil Company, which used to be 33 lakh barrels per day, has now shrunk drastically to only 9 lakh barrels per day.

Fear of crude oil crossing $135

The heat of this global turmoil and supply crisis has clearly reached the Indian markets as well. On Monday, while American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by $ 3.20 to reach $ 101.43 per barrel, crude oil prices on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) also rose by 3.70% and are trading at a high level of Rs 9,601 per barrel.

Well-known financial institution Goldman Sachs has increased its estimate of the average price of Brent crude for the year 2026 from $ 77 to $ 85 per barrel. Not only this, the average estimate for the months of March and April has been kept at $110. Market experts and experts clearly say that if the supply line remains disrupted for a long time, this huge reduction of 20 lakh barrels per day in total oil production will continue. In such a bad situation, crude oil prices can even reach a record level of $ 135 per barrel.