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For the first time, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA government has failed to get any law passed by the Lok Sabha. The Constitution Amendment Bill to women’s reservation was rejected in the Lok Sabha on Friday. If this Act had been passed, it would have been the 131st amendment to the Constitution. Bharatiya Janata Party does not have the numerical strength required to pass the bill. It could not have been passed in the House without the support of the opposition. To pass this ambitious bill of Modi government, 2/3rd votes were required in the House.

As soon as the bill was defeated, Union Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju termed the outcome as unfortunate. He said that two other bills to Union Territories and Delimitation, which were directly to this constitutional amendment, have now been defeated. If the government wants to pass them again, then two-thirds majority will be required, which the government does not have. It is not that the government does not have majority in the House, it is just that this bill did not have the required majority. Such sensitive topics generally do not pass without opposition support. No government has had a two-thirds majority in parliamentary history.

First election of Modi government in 12 years

Modi government’s big bill to provide reservation to women in the Lok Sabha failed on Friday. This is the first parliamentary defeat of the Modi government in 12 years. Opposition parties rejected Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s last-minute appeal and Home Minister Amit Shah’s proposal. Amit Shah had said that Lok Sabha seats will be increased by 50 percent in all the states, but the opposition did not agree.

How did Modi government lose in Parliament?

298 MPs voted in support of the 131st Amendment Bill of the Constitution. 230 votes were cast in opposition. This bill required at least 352 votes to pass. The bill could not secure a two-thirds majority. The opposition alleged that this bill, in the name of providing reservation to women from 2029, is a conspiracy to reduce the share of South Indian states in the Lok Sabha, change the political map and postpone the caste census.

Home Minister Amit Shah said that the share of southern states will increase slightly and the government is committed to the caste census, but the opposition did not accept him. After the failure of the bill, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju said that two other bills to it, including the delimitation bill, will be withdrawn. These bills will no longer be introduced in the Rajya Sabha.

Now how is BJP capitalizing on this?

Before voting, Prime Minister Modi had appealed to the MPs to consider their conscience and remember the women of the family. He said that the time has come to give women their rights. After the defeat of the bill, Bharatiya Janata Party termed Congress and India Alliance as anti-women. NDA women MPs protested in the Parliament complex even after the rain.

Bharatiya Janata Party leaders are attacking the opposition in one voice. She says that the opposition is anti-women and because of them women are not getting their rights. Leaders of BJP and its allies, including Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Congress, have started cornering the opposition over the failure of the bill.

Elections are going to be held in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal. BJP’s next strategy at all three places is to prove the ruling parties as anti-women.

How can BJP take electoral advantage?

Assembly elections have not been held yet in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Assam elections are over. Now BJP is going to raise the issue of women prominently in these states. Union Home Minister Amit Shah has already announced that now the opposition may have to suffer the consequences in the coming elections. He has also indicated to the party line how to corner the opposition regarding women’s law and delimitation. He has also prepared a clear plan regarding this.

What message has Amit Shah given now that will outweigh the opposition?

Amit Shah said, ‘Congress and its allies have not done this for the first time, but have done it again and again. This thinking of theirs is neither in the interest of women nor of the country. I want to tell them that this matter of insulting women power will not stop here, it will go far. The opposition will have to face the anger of women not only in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections, but at every level, every election and every place.

What Amit Shah has said after the failure of the bill is indicating that now the opposition is going to get worse in the election states –

What will be the agenda now in West Bengal?

West Bengal has, for a long time, been a matriarchal society. BJP is cornering Mamata Banerjee on the basis of ‘Maa, Mati, Manush’ which she does politics in the state on the basis of. In a state like West Bengal, where the narrative of ‘women’s identity’ and ‘maa-mati-manush’ is dominant, BJP can use this as an opportunity. BJP leaders are saying that BJP wanted to do welfare of women, TMC did not allow it to happen.

Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress has 33 MPs. There are 11 women MPs out of 33. Women have more representation in TMC, yet BJP surrounds the government in the name of women oppression. Mamata always criticizes the government regarding incidents like Sandeshkhali, RG Kar Medical College rape case, Singur, Nandigram and Park Street. BJP has got another chance. BJP is cornering Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal on issues ranging from women’s safety to their education and political access.

What is the agenda in Tamil Nadu and Kerala?

Social awareness is more effective in Kerala and Tamil Nadu than in North India. J Jayalalitha remained in the public eye for a long time in Tamil Nadu. His party (AIADMK) is an ally of BJP. Now BJP is arguing here that by spreading lies in the name of delimitation, MK Stalin does not want to give political dominance to the women of the state. BJP leaders are arguing that regional parties have limited women only to populist promises, and when it came to giving them representation, they ignored them.
 

BJP has already increased the participation of women in the local leadership of these states. Now BJP is presenting its failure in Parliament as a strategy. Amit Shah has already indicated that now because of this decision he is going to face a big defeat.

BJP can now give a tough challenge to the claim of leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Pinarayi Vijayan and MK Stalin being ‘pro-women’. BJP is reaching out to women voters on the issue of ‘safety and respect’ among Christians and other communities in Kerala. BJP says that reservation is the only constitutional way for their social representation, which is being blocked by the opposition.

How has BJP managed to influence women?

People who understand the politics of Bharatiya Janata Party say that women are silent voters of BJP. Many schemes of the central and state governments are women centric. There are many welfare schemes which have directly improved their standard of living. Initiatives like Ujjwala Yojana, Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, Jal Jeevan Mission have impacted women.

In some states, the ‘Ladli Behan’ scheme has also created an atmosphere in favor of BJP. BJP also implements financial assistance schemes like ‘Beti Bachao Beti Padhao’ and ‘Laadli Behna’. Being vocal about triple talaq and women’s safety has been beneficial in election states. Women constitute half the population, BJP is in power in 21 states and union territories. BJP is counting on its votes that these things are going to go against the opposition on this issue.