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One of Pep Guardiola or Mikel Arteta will be lifting the Premier League trophy in a few weeks' time. The two have been embroiled in a title race for most of the season, with Arsenal's inability to pull away having left the door open for the chasing Manchester City.

There's a belief that if Arsenal come away from the Etihad Stadium this weekend with either a draw or a victory, the Gunners will go on to finish top of the pile and secure the league title. It will be the first league championship in over 20 years for Arsenal, but even if Arteta brings the title back to Arsenal, the Spaniard shouldn't win the Manager of the Year award.

The reason is simple: Arsenal have made far too much of a mess of the title race, even if they do win it from here, to justify Arteta taking the prize. They've been next in line for at least three seasons now, and while mitigating factors have played a part in the previous two slip-ups, there was no excuse heading into this campaign.

Arteta was handed what ought to have been the final pieces of the puzzle in the summer transfer window, most notably a recognised striker in Viktor Gyokeres. However, despite a stellar start to the season, the Gunners have once again wobbled when the pressure has been ramped up.

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They're still favourites, and understandably so, but if Arsenal win it from here, they'll have likely crawled over the line, instead of waltzing. But what about Guardiola? Granted, he wasn't in the same position as countryman Arteta heading into the 2025/26 season, but his new-look City team have also flattered to deceive.

Arsenal have handed the perennial champions enough chances to take control of the title race themselves, but inconsistency has plagued the Blues far too often. If City do win the title, their maximum points total is 85. For all the wealth and resources City have available to them, that isn't a vintage title win for Guardiola.

So who should win it then? There's only one answer to that question.

Heading into the new season, it felt like most had Brentford marked down for a relegation scrap, with the Bees tipped by many to go down. Brentford rolled the dice by replacing long-term manager Thomas Frank with the unproven Keith Andrews.

But just a few weeks out from the end of the season, there is still a possibility Brentford could qualify for the Champions League. An absurd statement that would've been laughed at by almost everybody, probably even Andrews himself, had you said it back in August.

Elsewhere, Andoni Iraola could be in with a shout if he guides Bournemouth to Europe. While Unai Emery at Aston Villa, with all of the club's PSR restrictions, would've done a fantastic job to guide them to the Champions League places.

But one thing is for sure, if the question is 'Who should win the Premier League's Manager of the Year award?' the answer certainly isn't Guardiola or Arteta.