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We are still a fortnight away from the May 7 elections, but this contest has already shaken the nation. The depth of discontent with Labour is laid bare in polling that shows the party facing an electoral cataclysm of historic proportions.

Sir Keir Starmer led Labour to a landslide in 2024, but it is now on the verge of losing seats across the nation to nationalists, eco-socialists and populists. The latest YouGov poll to emerge from Wales - the supposed Labour heartland whose MPs included Keir Hardie, Aneurin Bevan, Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock - is staggering. Labour has been the biggest party at every general election for more than a century, but now it is in third place.

Pro-independence Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are tied on 29%, with Labour languishing on 13% - just three points ahead of the Greens.

Even if Labour can perform a massive "get out the vote" operation and perform better on polling day, activists will not forget this poll in a hurry. It reflects the disillusionment, not to mention downright anger, with the party in seats where the votes were once weighed.

Plaid has spent years presenting itself as a Left-of-centre alternative to Labour. It has broadened its appeal beyond voters for whom independence and the Welsh language are the top issues. Meanwhile, Reform has flourished in a nation which shocked the political establishment in 2016 by backing Brexit. Voters in former industrial heartlands who voted to Leave but still hesitated to vote Tory have embraced Nigel Farage's party.

There will be anxiety in Plaid circles as polling day races near. Has the party peaked too early? Projections suggest Reform could have 37 of the 96 seats in the Senedd in Cardiff Bay - one more than Plaid. Such a result would give Reform activists in every part of the UK an adrenaline boost and encourage them to believe that Mr Farage could be prime minister in 2029.

Labour is on course to have just 12 members of the Senedd but the longest faces of all may be in the Conservative group. Just 8% of those polled intended to vote for the party, which means it could have just three members. This would be a disaster for the Tories, which finished second in the 2021 election.

The tough message for both Sir Keir and Kemi Badenoch is that voters are fed up with the parties which have dominated politics for decade. Nothing can be taken for granted - even the long-term existence of the United Kingdom is up for debate.

Even in London, that supposed bastion of Labour support, Greens and Reform are on track to make major gains. Labour is expected to get the highest vote share (26%) but this is a fall of 16 points since the 2022 election. Labour apparatchiks at their next Islington dinner party will hope the capital does not go the way of Wales.