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New Delhi: As polling drew to a close across West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry, a wave of exit polls began shaping the early narrative around the final outcome of the results on May 4th. These post-voting surveys, conducted by speaking directly with electors outside booths, are not final results, but they offer a snapshot of public sentiment across regions, communities and political alliances. In particular, for parties and analysts, the numbers often set expectations and drive the political conversation in the tense hours before counting day.

A consolidated view drawn from major agencies, including Axis My India, Matrize, P-Marq, Chanakya Strategies and JVC, suggested a mixed national electoral picture. As per the early prediction, some states appear to be leaning towards continuity, with incumbent governments holding ground, while others are showing signs of a possible shift in power. The data points to distinct local factors influencing each state, from welfare schemes and leadership popularity to anti-incumbency and alliance arithmetic. Moreover, the turnout figures released by the Election Commission show massive participation, particularly among women and first-time voters, who are expected to prove decisive in close contests, according to pollsters' predictions.

BJP Predicted To Be Victorious

West Bengal has emerged as the most hotly contested battleground in exit polls. The projections indicated a tight race between the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP, with both camps claiming momentum on the ground.

The state witnessed a hot campaign focused on law and order, central schemes, and regional identity, and pollsters note that swing constituencies in North and South Bengal may ultimately decide the outcome. Multiple surveys also flagged a fragmented opposition vote that could influence margins in key seats.

Southern States Projection

In the southern states, Tamil Nadu and Kerala present different trends. Tamil Nadu’s projections largely point towards the DMK-led alliance retaining an edge, while the AIADMK-BJP combine is seen making gains in specific western and northern pockets.

On the other hand, Kerala, known for its alternating mandate, appears to be testing that pattern, with exit polls split on whether the LDF can secure a rare consecutive term or if the UDF will reclaim power. However, the pollsters predict an edge for the Congress-led UDF in Kerala. The results of Puducherry’s small assembly are also being eagerly awaited, with surveys suggesting a close fight, though the NDA is projected to have an upper hand.

BJP Projected For Clear Majority

Assam rounds out the 5 states, with most exit polls indicating that the BJP-led NDA is likely to cross the majority mark with a clear margin over the Congress-led alliance. The issues of development, flood management and identity politics dominated the campaign, and a high turnout in Upper and Lower Assam is expected to shape the final tally.

Across all states, pollsters have cautioned that exit polls carry a margin of error and have misread outcomes before. The final picture will only be clear once counting begins. As the nation awaits May 4 for final results, let’s take a closer look at 15 big takeaways from the Poll of Polls:  

 1.⁠ ⁠BJP set to double 2021 tally in Bengal to 150+: In the 2021 Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 77 seats, marking its rise as the principal opposition. However, exit polls for 2026 indicate a substantial increase. According to Chanakya Strategies, the BJP is projected to win 150-160 seats, comfortably surpassing the 148-seat majority, while P-Marq predicts 150-175 seats, indicating a strong mandate. Matrize expects 146–161 seats, with the BJP hanging near or above the majority line. JVC has a wider but competitive range of 138-159 seats, which means the party might still win a majority depending on where it falls. Taken together, all pollsters predict that the BJP will nearly double or perhaps exceed its 2021 tally, changing it from a powerful opposition to a probable ruling party in West Bengal.

 2.⁠ ⁠TMC could lose almost 6-8% of its voteshare: The All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), which won 215 seats in the 2021 elections, is expected to lose substantial ground in 2026, according to all exit polls. Chanakya Strategies gives the TMC only 30-40 seats, implying a major collapse. P-Marq forecasts 118-138 seats, a significant decrease from its prior dominance. Matrize predicts 125-140 seats, which is still much below its 2021 performance. JVC has a tighter race with 131-152 seats, but the TMC is no longer safely ahead. Such a consistent drop in seat forecasts across all agencies indicates a significant decline in vote share, estimated at 6-8%.

 3.⁠ ⁠The 'fearless vote' in Bengal is the kingmaker: West Bengal's elections have historically been marked by reports of violence, ranging from fights between party workers to arson, intimidation, and even damage to voting infrastructure. This discouraged many people from voting, typically resulting in reduced participation in critical constituencies.

This time, however, the narrative appears to have changed. Voters flocked to voting stations, casting their ballots without hesitation and, in many cases, openly expressing their confidence in exercising their political rights. The reported jump in voter turnout, which reached nearly 90%, indicates a dramatic shift in voting behavior.

 4.⁠ ⁠SIR & anti-incumbency hurt Mamata's TMC: The West Bengal election campaign has been heavily affected by anti-incumbency sentiments directed at Mamata Banerjee's government, which has been in power for nearly 15 years. Unemployment, corruption, law and order, and governance have all contributed to voter unhappiness. The school recruitment scam, involving the cancellation of around 25,000 jobs due to irregularities, has further damaged the government’s credibility, along with allegations of everyday corruption like “tolabazi”.

Along with this, the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls has heightened political tensions, with approximately 9 million voters purged or designated for review. The BJP has expressed worries about citizenship and infiltration, but the TMC has accused the process of risking voting exclusion, particularly among minorities. Together, anti-incumbency and voter roll controversy have created a challenging electoral environment for the TMC.

 5.⁠ ⁠Large Hindu consolidation seen in Bengal: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has focused its campaign on issues such as citizenship, immigration, and alleged minority appeasement, positioning itself as a representative of Hindu interests, while the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) has countered by emphasizing Bengali identity and outreach to diverse communities. The fact that multiple pollsters expect a larger vote and seat share for the BJP suggests that a sizable proportion of Hindu voters may have voted in a more organized manner. 

 6.⁠ ⁠NDA may not have done enough to unseat Stalin: According to most surveys, the NDA's performance in Tamil Nadu remains limited, with Axis My India estimating only 22-32 seats for the BJP-led alliance in the 234-member Assembly, considerably below the threshold required to fight for power. Even in a more triangular fight molded by Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), the NDA does not emerge as a major competitor, with the vote split mostly between the DMK alliance and TVK, leaving the NDA in third place. Other pollsters, such as Matrize and P-MARQ, similarly show a comfortable advantage for the DMK-led coalition, with the NDA struggling to make major gains.

Overall, while anti-incumbency and new entries have changed the fight, the NDA has been unable to consolidate sufficient support, implying that the ruling DMK alliance is fundamentally ahead and likely to maintain power, assuming no significant divergence from exit poll trends.

 7.⁠ ⁠Vijay still holds the key to who forms govt in Tamil Nadu: Exit poll patterns suggest that Vijay may still hold the key to government formation in Tamil Nadu, even if his party does not win a clear majority on its own. His party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, has emerged as the most significant X-factor in this election, with forecasts ranging from 0-6 seats in certain surveys to 98-120 seats in the Axis My India survey. This big variance suggests that TVK's real performance could have a considerable impact on the eventual outcome.

In scenarios where the DMK-led alliance falls short of a majority or the race turns close, TVK's seat share, particularly if it falls in the 30-40 range predicted by some pollsters, could make it a deciding factor. 

In such a case, Vijay could act as a kingmaker, supporting either side or using his position to influence the administration. Even in the more extreme scenario in which TVK emerges as the single largest party, post-poll partnerships may still be required to cross the majority threshold, putting Vijay at the center of discussions.

 8.⁠ ⁠Possibility of Vijay sweep if voteshare crosses 35%: The possibility of a sweep by Vijay hinges heavily on whether his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, is able to push its vote share beyond the crucial 35% mark. In a state like Tamil Nadu, where elections are largely decided through a first-past-the-post system, even a modest lead in vote share can translate into a disproportionately high number of seats. If TVK manages to cross or hover around this threshold, especially in a triangular contest, it could convert vote share into a sweeping seat tally.

Exit polls already reflect this possibility in a fragmented way. While most agencies show TVK as a third force, Axis My India’s projection of 98–120 seats suggests what could happen if Vijay’s support base consolidates strongly across constituencies. A vote share above 35% would likely mean that TVK is not just cutting into the traditional bases of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam(DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam(AIADMK), but actually overtaking them in multiple seats with narrow margins.

 9.⁠ ⁠Himanta emerges even stronger in Assam: The exit poll projections strongly suggest that Himanta Biswa Sarma is set to emerge even stronger in Assam’s political landscape. Across all major pollsters, Axis My India, JVC, Matrize, and P-Marq, the BJP-led NDA is consistently projected to win between roughly 82 and 101 seats in the 126-member Assembly, comfortably above the majority mark. Such a decisive mandate indicates not just continuity, but consolidation of power under Sarma’s leadership.

What makes this outcome significant is that the Congress-led alliance, despite forming a broader coalition, is still projected to lag far behind, with most estimates placing it in the mid-20s to high-30s range. This gap reflects a strong voter endorsement of the incumbent government’s governance and political strategy. Additionally, the limited projected impact of smaller parties further suggests that the electoral contest has become increasingly bipolar, with the NDA firmly dominating.

10.⁠ ⁠Pro-incumbency wave for Himanta in Assam: The exit poll trends from Assam point towards a clear continuation of support for the current leadership, indicating a strong pro-incumbency wave in favour of Himanta Biswa Sarma. Rather than showing signs of voter fatigue or a desire for change, the projections consistently suggest that the electorate is leaning towards retaining the BJP-led NDA government in the state.

Across all major exit polls, the NDA is expected to comfortably cross the majority mark in the 126-member Assembly, with estimates ranging roughly between 82 and 101 seats. This sustained lead over the Congress-led alliance reflects a political climate where the ruling party’s performance appears to be meeting voter expectations, thereby reducing the usual anti-incumbency pressure. A pro-incumbency wave in this context essentially means that governance perception, welfare schemes, and leadership image are working in favour of the sitting government. 

11.⁠ ⁠Himanta maintains voteshare, improves seat share: The exit poll projections from Assam indicate to a politically crucial outcome for Himanta Biswa Sarma, as the BJP-led NDA appears to be maintaining its core support base while also translating it into a larger seat advantage. In simple terms, this represents a circumstance in which the alliance is able to maintain its vote share while increasing its seat share.

Maintaining vote share implies that the NDA is projected to maintain the same level of total voter support as in the previous election, showing that its core voting base has stayed substantially intact with no significant erosion to the opposition.

12.⁠ ⁠Delimitation & SIR in Assam has had a big impact: The 2023 delimitation in Assam has reshaped constituencies in a way that appears to benefit the ruling alliance led by Himanta Biswa Sarma. By redrawing boundaries, several earlier large constituencies with mixed political support were split into smaller ones. This changed the voter balance, so instead of one competitive seat, the same area may now form two or three constituencies with different voter strengths. In many cases, this has helped concentrate BJP support in more constituencies, improving its chances of winning more seats even without a big change in overall vote share.

At the same time, SIR (electoral roll revision) has cleaned up voter lists by removing duplicates and incorrect entries, which can slightly influence turnout patterns in closely contested seats. Together, delimitation and SIR have improved the BJP’s seat conversion efficiency in Assam, helping the party translate steady voter support into a stronger seat share.

13.⁠ ⁠Huge Hindu consolidation helps BJP in Assam: Assam's politics is influenced by its ethnic variety, which includes populations such as the Ahom, Bodo, Mishing, Karbis, and others, as well as Assamese Hindus, Bengalis, and tribes. This diversity has usually resulted in fragmented political outcomes, making it difficult for a single party to prevail.

However, recent results indicate a shift. The BJP-led alliance secured a strong majority (86 seats) in 2016 and will retain power in 2021 (75 members) in the 126-member Assembly. This shows that the party was able to form a broader coalition across communities. A crucial element frequently mentioned is the consolidation of non-Muslim votes, particularly among various Hindu groupings, which has reduced vote dispersion in several areas.

14.⁠ ⁠UDF ahead but Kerala may be a hung assembly: Exit polls indicate that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is leading in Kerala and is expected to emerge as the single largest alliance, with forecasts ranging from 70 to 90 seats across agencies like as Axis My India, JVC, Matrize, and P-MARQ. The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) is anticipated to follow closely after with 49-62 seats, while the BJP-led NDA remains a marginal force with up to 8 seats.

However, despite the UDF's lead, the gap is insufficient to rule out unpredictability. Several estimates show a close race between the UDF and the LDF, implying that modest changes in vote share could have a substantial impact on seat outcomes. As a result, Kerala could still edge toward a hung or tightly balanced Assembly, even though UDF appears to be ahead in most exit polls.

15.⁠ ⁠Despite anti-incumbency, Cong may not have done enough in Kerala: Despite the presence of anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), exit poll results indicate that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) may not have made a decisive enough breakthrough in Kerala to secure an unchallenged mandate.

While most surveys, including Axis My India, JVC, Matrize, and P-MARQ, predict the UDF to be the dominating coalition with 70-90 seats, the LDF is likely to maintain its competitiveness with 49-62 seats. This relatively tiny deficit suggests that anti-incumbency sentiment has not yet translated into a significant election shift. According to various forecasts, the race is still close enough that even slight vote shifts could influence the ultimate outcome, creating the prospect of a closely divided or undecided Assembly.

As the exit poll projections draw a complicated and varied political picture across states, they highlight a mix of continuity, consolidation, and conflict in India’s regional politics. While the BJP appears to be expanding its position in crucial states such as West Bengal and Assam, regional dynamics in Tamil Nadu and Kerala indicate splintered mandates and hotly disputed outcomes. However, because these are pre-counting predictions, the final verdict will not be known until the ballots are officially counted on May 4, when the results will be announced and it will be obvious whether these patterns transfer into actual electoral outcomes or experience substantial reversals.