Top News

Sir Keir Starmer may feel he dodged a bullet this week when the Commons voted against a Parliamentary inquiry into his botched appointment of Peter Mandelson as Britain's ambassador to the US. But a high-explosive missile is still heading straight for Starmer's leadership the form of next Thursday's local elections. In the biggest test of public opinion since Labour's landslide of 2024, more than 30 million people are entitled to vote in contests for 5,000 seats. The outcome is expected to be a comprehensive rout of Labour, dramatically worsening the crisis that engulfs the Prime Minister. Relishing the prospect of his imminent downfall, his ambitious rivals are plotting their paths to succeed him.

"It's now or never," says Angela Rayner, whose noisy narcissism and proletarian posturing has made her the darling of the activists. Meanwhile the Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham pointedly refuses to back Starmer and instead declares that Labour must urgently change course. The speed with which Starmer has lost his authority is remarkable. His Downing Street machine is dysfunctional, his suitability for the job non-existent. One former Minister is scathing about him: "The public is allergic to Starmer and the party cannot stand him. He has no friend in politics and he trusts no-one. He has not a single real supporter in the Cabinet."

The aftermath of next week's elections - where Labour are expected to lose more than 2,000 of the 2,500 seats they are defending - represent a prime opportunity to strike. What will be particularly damaging for Labour is the potential hammering in their traditional heartlands, across the North, the Midlands, London and Wales.

In the capital, Labour faces their worst results in more than half a century. Even in Starmer's fiefdom of Camden, packed with affluent woke professionals, Labour are looking vulnerable. It is the same story in Birmingham where one recent poll shows that Labour's support has plummeted by 30% since the last municipal elections.

Even more shocking is the looming meltdown in Wales. For the last 126 years, Labour have won every contest there, often by huge margins. Moreover Wales has always been central to Labour culture, reflected in the fact that one quarter of the party's leaders have represented Welsh seats.

Their number includes Labour's founding father Keir Hardie, the MP for Merthyr Tydfil whose compelling history was an inspiration to the parents of the current leader when they were deciding what name to give him. Sir Keir may have been given Hardie's name but he inherited none of his predecessors' charisma or convictions.

Labour will pay a heavy price for the disillusion that Starmer's supine, shambolic government has generated. Nor can the party take any comfort from the Tories' continuing unpopularity, despite Kemi Badenoch's increased self-confidence in the Commons.

The traditional, two party system has been fractured - perhaps permanently - by successive governments which have failed to maintain the integrity of our borders, the solvency of our finances, the prosperity of our economy, the strength of our defences, and the affordability of our energy.

In their anger, voters are turning to Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats or the Greens, as well as the nationalists in Wales and Scotland. In a by-election in Newquay, Cornwall, last month, Labour, incredibly, finished in sixth place with just 5.6%of the vote.

At a Salford by-election, a 30% fall in Labour support saw Reform UK take the seat on the city council. Labour are now in real danger of being squeezed into irrelevancy by the new multi-party landscape. The longer Starmer remains in charge, the deeper Labour will sink.