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Thiruvananthapuram: The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is on course to secure a comfortable majority in the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections, according to an exit poll survey. The findings suggested the alliance is not merely ahead but “comfortably ahead", with a projected tally that places it well clear of the halfway mark in the 140-member House.

The Exit Polls seat projection places the UDF between 88 and 92 seats, comfortably above the majority threshold of 70. On the other hand, the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) is facing a sharp decline, with the survey estimating its share at 42 to 46 seats. The BJP-led NDA and other smaller players are seen as remaining on the margins, struggling with limited seat conversion despite a steady vote base.

The numbers point to a decisive mood shift among voters after two consecutive terms of LDF rule under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. The fresh exit poll predictions for the UDF mark a major revival after its 2021 defeat, setting the stage for a possible return to government in Thiruvananthapuram.

According to Poll Mantra, the survey reflects a “structured shift” in voter preference across Kerala’s 3 broad regions. The UDF appeared to be gaining ground in Malabar while consolidating and expanding its lead in central Kerala. In the meantime, Travancore remains competitive, but the pollster notes that it may not be enough to change the outcome for the LDF.

On vote share, the UDF is estimated at 38.5 percent, with the LDF trailing at 33.4 percent. The NDA holds a stable base at 20.2 per cent, though that support is not translating into the number of seats. The data also indicated visible anti-incumbency against the Vijayan government, particularly in areas that had backed the Left in previous cycles.

The survey also credits senior Congress leader KC Venugopal as a key driver of the UDF’s campaign narrative. On leadership perception, Venugopal tops the influence rating at 21.4 percent, ahead of CM Vijayan at 18.6 percent and Leader of Opposition (LoP) VD Satheesan at 16.2 percent. 

When voters were asked about their preferred choice for Chief Minister, Satheesan emerged narrowly ahead with 21.2 per cent support, just edging out Vijayan at 20.5 per cent. Further, Venugopal followed at 17.8 per cent. A closely contested middle tier includes KK Shailaja, Ramesh Chennithala and BJP’s Rajeev Chandrasekhar, each drawing support between 10.5 and 11.2 percent.

The pollster, Poll Mantra, noted that while the UDF appears to benefit from multiple recognisable faces, the LDF’s appeal remains largely concentrated around the incumbent chief minister, with fewer leaders registering comparable influence ratings.