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It has been said in the SBI report that the country's GDP can be 6.6 percent.

A report by SBI Research on Monday said that India's economy is expected to grow at 6.6 percent in the financial year 2026-27, while a comprehensive package is needed on the Balance of Payments (BoP) front amid the weakening of the rupee and rising oil prices. The report said that the rupee, which has weakened significantly in recent times due to “cloudy external economic conditions and continued speculative forces”, needs structural changes on the BoP front. For this, there is a need to streamline security measures like import substitution, competition in exports and integration in the global supply chain. Rupee has crossed the level of 95 against the US dollar. The US dollar has strengthened due to global uncertainties arising from the ongoing conflict in West Asia.

What needs to be done?

SBI Research said there is now a strong need to implement a comprehensive package to deal with the Balance of Payments (BoP) problem, "and it strongly argued in favor of 'Diaspora Bonds'. The report said that the country's economic fundamentals are deteriorating, as Brent crude prices remain above $ 100 per barrel, and there has been a huge increase in the cost of transportation and insurance. In such a situation, there is a need to take such measures. Which can improve the situation of BoP.

The report said that if the rupee rate reaches 95 rupees against the dollar, then the size of the economy will reduce to 4.04 trillion dollars, and the dream of becoming a 5 trillion dollar economy will be fulfilled only by the year 2030. The report also warned that rapid, and sometimes sustained, depreciation of the rupee, as well as significant volatility, could undermine investor confidence.

SBI advice

According to the report, a newly launched 'Indian Diaspora Bond' should be designed in such a way that it does not get caught in a 'Catch-22' situation in terms of its size, yield, tenor and tax-friendly treatment for investors at maturity. This suggestion of SBI Research has come at a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday stressed the need to save foreign exchange due to the West Asia crisis, and also suggested judicious use of fuel, and postponing the purchase of gold and foreign travel for a year.

What can be the speed?

India meets more than 80 percent of its energy needs through imports. Meanwhile, SBI Research said that real GDP growth in Q4FY26 is expected to be around 7.2 percent and now the GDP growth rate for the full year 2026-27 is estimated at 6.6 percent. GDP growth is likely to be 7.5 percent in FY26. In the first Monetary Policy Committee meeting of this financial year, the Reserve Bank of India had estimated GDP growth for FY27 at 6.9 percent. The National Statistics Office (NSO) is scheduled to release preliminary estimates of annual GDP for FY2025-26, along with GDP estimates for the January-March quarter, on May 29, 2026.

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