Angela Rayner is the bookmakers' front-runner to become PM. This is a woman who cannot even manage her own tax return. Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting, and Ed Miliband are also in the frame. The PM is clinging on by his fingertips. Labour is now obsessed with one thing: who replaces him. It hasn't got time for anything else. That's a real problem, because a serious crisis is brewing.
Labour should be ashamed of itself. First, by unleashing Chancellor Rachel Reeves to trash the economy, driving up taxes and spending, while destroying growth. She's left us more exposed to the Iran crisis than any other major economy. Oil prices continue to rise, and we face shortages by summer. But the biggest danger facing us today isn't oil. It's the bond market. Investors are watching the Labour leadership struggle, and they don't like it one bit.
The UK is once again on the brink of a gilts crisis. Exactly like the one we suffered under former Tory PM Liz Truss, less than four years ago. And potentially worse.
The bond market is where governments go to borrow money. Reeves is there as often as a serial shoplifter hits Tesco. She borrowed a mighty £132billion in the year to March. That's despite all the taxes she's hiked.
In total, the UK plans to issue £252billion in bonds, or gilts, this year. That includes refinancing existing debt. As investors grow suspicious, they're demanding we pay ever higher interest rates. Chris Beauchamp at investment platform IG warned: "Markets are already pricing in a new PM who will open the floodgates on spending despite the UK's dangerous fiscal situation."
He's dead right. These days, I watch 10-year gilt yields like a hawk. The higher they go, the more it costs us to borrow, and the worse our finances get.
A couple of months ago, 10-year gilt yields were around 4.25%. They've just topped 5.13%. That's well above the Liz Truss peak of 4.6% - and they're still climbing. By contrast, Germany pays just 3.1%. Why? Because bond investors trust Germany. They don't trust us. We're all paying the price of Labour's failure.
Longer-dated debt is even more worrying. Twenty-year gilt yields just hit 5.73%. Thirty-year yields are higher still. These are records this Millennium. It's terrifying.
Debt interest already absorbs around £1 in every £12 the government spends, costing roughly £3,400 per household. We're being pulled deeper and deeper into the red. And with Rayner and Burnham hovering, we're in big trouble.
Once Starmer falls, Labour is set to take a sharp left turn. More tax, more spending, more borrowing. All of which will undermine growth and drive up our debt. Yes, it's back to the 1970s again. No wonder bond investors are spooked.
Labour MPs and activists don't care. They never do, really. All they want to do is get their hands on money and spend it. As Starmer slides, the bond market is on red alert. It's particularly worried about Rayner. We now risk another Truss-style shock. That's a British government's worst nightmare. Labour will never be forgiven.
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