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The looming Makerfield by-election will be a summer showdown for Labour and Reform, and the stakes could not be higher for all sides. Crucially, this could be Andy Burnham's route to 10 Downing Street. Unlike in February's by-election - also in Greater Manchester - this time the PM has next to no authority to block the Manchester Mayor from standing following his party's disastrous local election results.

Moreover, if Burnham can win a seat Reform is set to win based on national polling (and, by the way, Reform is back up to or near 30% in post-local election polls), it will be a colossal boost to his leadership credentials. We are in the weird position where some Labour luminaries (Starmer and other would-be PM Wes Streeting included) probably want Burnham to fail or at least wouldn't shed many tears if he did.

Burnham is perhaps the Labour leader Reform fears most in the immediate term but longer-term Burnham's plans for government are probably those which would spook the financial markets and catalyse economic meltdown the quickest. His star will dim fast.

The stakes are therefore high all around. For Burnham, Starmer and Streeting this is career-defining. For Reform, the by-election could neuter a would-be Labour leader, and victory further cement Reform's dominance in what were Northern Labour heartlands.

Indeed, far from 'peak Farage' the local elections and poll bounce evidence gathering momentum for Reform, which opened an 11-point lead over rival parties in latest YouGov polling. YouGov now has Farage's party on 28%, up from 25% and 26% in previous polls.

Better yet for Reform, More in Common has Farage's party on 30%. That comes with a nine-point lead versus a seven-point lead in its earlier poll. Pollster Opinium also has Reform up from eight points to nine points (or 28% up from 27%) while Freshwater Strategy has Reform up from 26% to 29%, with a four-point lead jumping to nine.

A constituency like Makerfield is certainly fertile ground for Reform, both demographically and politically. Comprised of Ashton-in-Makerfield and other areas of the Metropolitan Borough of Wigan, the constituency skews skilled working class, is predominantly white and more heavily home-owning. And heavily pro-Brexit!

Reform ran Labour a close second at the 2024 election, and modelling forecasts a strong Reform win. It will be rich of Labour to sell itself as the saviour of yet another area of the country left behind by what was once the party of the working man and woman.

That mantle now squarely goes to Reform, far more in touch with areas like Makerfield than are the Islingtonian lawyers and think-tankers who lead today's hapless Labour Party. Makerfield is a high-stakes election for all sides. Expect then a summer showdown in Manchester where the future contours of British politics could be about to take shape.