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With the deadline for naming Canada’s World Cup squad fast approaching, head coach Jesse Marsch has some tough calls to make as fitness concerns continue to affect key figures such as Alphonso Davies and Moïse Bombito. The national team’s lineup is being assessed by tiers, ranging from guaranteed starters like Jonathan David and Stephen Eustaquio to those still vying for their final chance to make the cut.

Time is of the essence. Whether it’s the Gastown Steam Clock in Vancouver or the clock tower at Toronto’s old City Hall, the countdown continues toward the May 31 deadline for Canada to announce its 26-man squad for the 2026 World Cup.

With less than a month remaining, and with the team soon set to assemble in Charlotte for a pre-World Cup training camp before friendlies against Uzbekistan and Ireland, Marsch faces several crucial selection dilemmas.

So where do the players currently stand? How have injuries influenced the selection process, and what should players be feeling at this stage? Here’s a breakdown of Canada’s potential World Cup roster by tiers.

Starting this summer

If Marsch had the option to revert to the lineup he fielded at the 2024 Copa América, he likely would. Despite progress over the past two years, injuries and absences have made it difficult for any player to consider themselves a guaranteed starter for Canada.

That leaves only a handful of players securely in the starting category, a list that currently excludes Alphonso Davies. The Bayern Munich star suffered a hamstring strain in the UEFA Champions League semifinal second leg against Paris Saint-Germain and is expected to be sidelined for four to five weeks, making his availability for the group stage uncertain.

Beyond Davies, Villarreal winger Tajon Buchanan appears to be a certain starter on the right flank, having registered seven goals and one assist in 32 La Liga appearances this season.

Up front, Jonathan David remains an automatic choice despite Juventus’ inconsistent form. He will likely be partnered with Cyle Larin, who, despite going 11 matches without a goal for Canada, is coming off a productive season with Southampton, scoring nine times in 21 EFL Championship matches.

In midfield, Stephen Eustaquio is expected to start after returning from injury and reclaiming his place in LAFC’s lineup. He will be joined by Ismaël Koné, who has enjoyed a breakout season with Sassuolo.

Feeling good

This group includes players who would normally be automatic starters but are dealing with injuries. Chief among them is Alphonso Davies, who, if fully fit, would play every minute for Canada, most likely at left back.

Joining him are several seasoned internationals who are near-certain roster inclusions but not guaranteed starters. Under Marsch’s tenure, which has seen 54 players called up, a clear core group has emerged.

In defence, Toronto FC’s Richie Laryea, Celtic’s Alistair Johnston, and centre-backs Derek Cornelius, Luc De Fougerolles of FCV Dender, and Moïse Bombito are near-certainties. Hajduk Split’s Niko Sigur, capable of playing both right-back and central midfield, also fits this profile.

Bombito, a key performer during Canada’s 2024 Copa América semifinal run, is recovering from a leg fracture suffered in October. He is expected to be fully fit and could return as a starting option this summer.

Johnston’s starting role may be uncertain due to competition from Laryea and Davies’ possible return. He missed most of Celtic’s campaign with a hamstring injury and has not represented Canada since June, while others in his position have improved.

Among wingers, Norwich City’s Ali Ahmed and Hull City’s Liam Millar both look secure. Ahmed tallied four goals and three assists in his debut EFL Championship season, while Millar is preparing for the Championship promotion playoff final.

In attack, Tani Oluwaseyi is expected to be Larin’s backup after a strong first season with Villarreal. In midfield, LAFC’s Mathieu Choinière and RSC Anderlecht’s Nathan Saliba are likely inclusions beyond the starting eleven.

For goalkeepers, Inter Miami CF’s Dayne St. Clair and Orlando City’s Maxime Crépeau remain confident of their places, despite modest MLS form. Both play behind struggling defensive lines, and neither has yet claimed the clear No. 1 spot, keeping competition open.

On the bubble

Despite Canada’s rising football profile, the player pool remains relatively small, though it has expanded since Marsch took charge in May 2024. As a result, fringe options are limited.

While most starting and backup positions are effectively decided, tough decisions remain across several positions. In goal, Huddersfield Town’s Owen Goodman is expected to edge out Portland Timbers’ in-form James Pantemis for the third goalkeeper slot.

In defence, Middlesbrough’s Alfie Jones might make the cut but could miss out due to injury, opening potential spots for Chicago Fire’s Joel Waterman or Portland’s Kamal Miller.

In attack, Royale Union Saint-Gilloise forward Promise David scored 11 goals in 51 matches but is racing to recover from hip surgery. Tigres UANL’s Marcelo Flores made a strong impression in his first Canada camp in March but has seen limited playing time in Liga MX and is yet to feature in a competitive match for Canada, making a World Cup debut a major test.

Elsewhere, Jacob Shaffelburg is looking to rediscover his 2024 Copa América and Nashville SC form after joining LAFC, while veteran winger Junior Hoilett, now 35, hopes his 2022 World Cup experience helps him earn another appearance. In midfield, Jonathan Osorio’s spot remains uncertain, while forwards Jacen Russell-Rowe, Theo Bair, and Daniel Jebbison continue to compete for backup roles.

Maybe next time

Given the size of the player pool and the drop-off after the top 26 players, there are unlikely to be any major surprises in the final roster.

Marsch’s tenure has been built around preparing for this World Cup, leaving limited opportunities for fringe players, and no injuries have yet ruled anyone out completely.

Seventeen-year-old Inter Toronto midfielder Sholah Jimoh is considered a future prospect but is probably too young for this tournament. Austin FC’s Jayden Nelson, despite scoring twice in MLS this season, may miss out, as might Plymouth Argyle’s 23-year-old striker Aribim Pepple, who has netted 18 goals in 39 appearances across EFL League One and the EFL Trophy.

Beyond that younger group, Canada’s core squad is largely set. However, the coming weeks will be crucial for injury recoveries, particularly for Davies and Bombito, whose fitness could determine whether Canada’s journey ends in the group stage or extends into a deeper run in the tournament.