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This Sunday will decide the fate of either Tottenham Hotspur or West Ham United, as one of the two London clubs faces relegation from the Premier League. Here’s a detailed look at their chances of surviving the drop.

The title race may have ended, but the battle to avoid relegation remains fierce and unresolved at the bottom of the table.

Going into the final day, Tottenham and West Ham know one thing for certain – one will stay up, and the other will go down.

Tottenham currently have a two-point advantage over West Ham, which means a win against Everton at home will ensure their safety. Even a draw should suffice, given their superior goal difference. However, a defeat could open the door for West Ham, provided they manage to defeat Leeds United.

Tottenham have never been relegated during the Premier League era, their last demotion coming in the 1976–77 season. West Ham, on the other hand, have gone down twice since the Premier League began – first in 2002–03 with a record 42 points, and again in 2010–11.

Both clubs have spent the past 14 seasons in the top flight, so whichever side drops will mark the end of a long unbroken run at the highest level.

So who is more likely to survive? Let’s break it down into four key factors that could influence the outcome.

The relegation fight often goes down to the final day. In 34 Premier League seasons, this will be the 24th time that at least one team’s relegation fate is decided on the last matchday.

Historically, clubs that start the final day in the relegation zone tend to stay there – this has happened 14 times. However, on nine occasions, a team has managed to claw their way to safety with a better result than their rivals above them.

This means in 39.1% of seasons where the relegation battle went to the final day, at least one team escaped the drop despite starting in the bottom three – a small but notable glimmer of hope for West Ham.

However, five of those nine instances occurred before the end of the 1999–2000 campaign, meaning it has only happened four times in the last 26 years.

Since 2011, that feat has been achieved just once – when Leeds beat Brentford 2–1 on the final day of the 2021–22 season to send Burnley down. That suggests West Ham face an uphill battle to repeat such a comeback.

Interestingly, despite being in danger, neither team’s recent form is disastrous.

Tottenham have shown clear improvement under Roberto De Zerbi. They recently went on their longest unbeaten run of the season – four matches – before narrowly losing to Chelsea in midweek, a game they arguably deserved to draw.

West Ham, meanwhile, are on a three-match losing streak, their joint-worst run this season. Yet their home record remains solid. Their last home defeat came against eventual champions Arsenal, and even then, they came close to a draw after a lengthy VAR review. Before that, they were unbeaten at home since January – a run of six league matches and three FA Cup fixtures, one of which was a penalty shootout loss to Leeds after a draw in normal time.

Nuno Espírito Santo’s men have been poor away from home recently, losing at Brentford and Newcastle, but their strong home form gives them a realistic chance of beating Leeds this weekend.

Tottenham, by contrast, have struggled badly at home all season. They have managed just two Premier League wins at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with none since December. One of those victories came on the opening day in August, a 3–0 win over Burnley.

The reasons behind their home struggles remain unclear, and those issues have persisted even under De Zerbi. They let a 2–1 lead slip against Brighton deep into stoppage time and collapsed after leading against Leeds. Although both matches ended in draws, a single point should be enough for them this weekend – unless West Ham deliver an extraordinary result.

Still, Tottenham cannot afford to take anything for granted against an Everton side without a win in six games. And then there’s the infamous ‘Dr Tottenham’ effect.

“Dr Tottenham” is a tongue-in-cheek nickname used to describe Spurs’ habit of helping struggling teams end their winless runs. While it might be more myth than fact, there’s some evidence this season to back it up.

Out of 10 winless Premier League runs of at least seven games that have ended this season, Tottenham were the team to end four of them. That’s 44.4% – a worrying statistic for Spurs fans. The teams they ‘cured’ include Bournemouth, Chelsea, West Ham, and Nottingham Forest. The most remarkable of those was Bournemouth – Spurs ended their 11-game winless run just before the Cherries began a stunning 17-match unbeaten streak.

So, while there’s no science behind “Dr Tottenham”, history suggests this pattern could prey on players’ minds. Spurs may find it difficult to play conservatively for a draw, especially under the pressure of 60,000 anxious fans.

West Ham, in contrast, face a Leeds team unbeaten in their last eight games. The Hammers have not defeated a team on such a strong run this season, so they’ll need to raise their game significantly.

For a more objective perspective, the Opta supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations of the season’s conclusion. The results were stark: West Ham were relegated in 85.5% of simulations, while Tottenham went down in 14.5%. That shows just how difficult the task is for West Ham.

The supercomputer’s model is based purely on team quality and historical performance. Tottenham, ranked 32nd globally in the Opta Power Rankings, are closer in quality to Everton (24th) than West Ham (43rd) are to Leeds (25th). Spurs have also lost just one of their last five matches, giving them a better chance statistically of securing a result.

However, numbers don’t account for emotion or pressure. The supercomputer doesn’t factor in the anxiety of 60,000 home supporters or the mental strain on players knowing what’s at stake. Those human elements could change everything.

With one round to go, Tottenham appear to hold all the cards, but West Ham still have reasons to believe. In football, as always, anything can happen on the final day.