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Economists and market experts believe the Reserve Bank of India's record surplus transfer of Rs 2.87 lakh crore to the central government will provide some relief to the government's finances at a time when subsidy pressures are expected to rise due to the ongoing West Asia crisis, while also boosting liquidity in the banking system.

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The RBI on Friday announced a record dividend payout to the government for FY26, higher than the Rs 2.69 lakh crore transferred in the previous year.

Aiding Government Amid Subsidy Pressures

Reacting to the development, DK Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor at EY India, said the higher surplus transfer could help the government partly manage rising subsidy expenses. "This is a marginal increase in non-tax revenues which will be useful to partly neutralise some of the expected increase in government subsidies, including food, fertiliser, and petroleum subsidies in the wake of the ongoing West Asian crisis," Srivastava said.

He also pointed out that RBI's earnings rose sharply during FY26. "In 2025-26, the gross income of the RBI increased by 26.4 per cent and net income by 26.3 per cent," he said.

Srivastava further noted that the RBI has steadily increased its gold holdings over the years amid rising global gold prices. "It is notable that the RBI has been increasing the share of gold reserves in its total foreign exchange reserves over the years. This share was 5.9 per cent in 2020-21. Since then, it has progressively increased to 16.7 per cent in 2025-26," he added.

Fiscal Pressures Remain a Concern

Meanwhile, Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist at Emkay Global Financial Services, said the dividend was largely in line with market expectations and may not fully ease concerns around fiscal pressures. "Despite a hefty dividend, markets may remain cautious amid rising risks of fiscal slippage, FX pressures, and tighter policy expectations ahead," Arora said.

According to Emkay Global, the government could still face pressure on its finances due to higher energy and fertiliser subsidy costs linked to geopolitical tensions. "We estimate the current annualised net fiscal cost of the ongoing energy crisis at ~Rs1.7-1.8tn (~0.5 per cent of GDP), with an additional fertiliser subsidy burden of ~Rs1tn (0.3 per cent of GDP) further straining the govt's fiscal math," the report said.

The brokerage also said the RBI dividend transfer could improve liquidity conditions in the banking system. "The RBI dividend transfer is likely to sharply lift core liquidity surplus to above Rs 5tn," the report added.

Maintaining Fiscal Stability

Dr Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist at India Ratings & Research, said the surplus transfer would help the government maintain its fiscal deficit target for FY27 despite global uncertainties. "Higher transfer will reduce some pressure on fiscal deficit due to the geopolitical situation," Pant said.

He also noted that the RBI's higher contingency reserves would strengthen the central bank's ability to respond to future financial market volatility. "Transferring a higher amount to the CRB will help in RBI intervening in the financial market as per the evolving domestic and global macroeconomic conditions," Pant added.

Economists broadly believe the record surplus transfer gives the government additional financial room at a time of rising global uncertainty, though concerns over subsidy burden and fiscal pressures are likely to persist. (ANI)