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The chessboard for the assembly elections to be held in Uttar Pradesh in the year 2027 has already started. While on one hand BJP is making a strategy to retain power and Samajwadi Party is trying to make a comeback with the help of ‘PDA’ (Backward, Dalit, Minority) formula, on the other hand Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi has prepared to make a big bang in the politics of UP. Owaisi has given clear instructions to the workers of his party AIMIM to start working at the grassroots level. This time, Owaisi’s intention is not just to ‘mark his presence’ in the election field, but to become a ‘kingmaker’ in the politics of UP.

Lesson learned from 2022 defeat, now double plan

In the 2022 assembly elections, Owaisi’s party had fielded candidates on 95 seats, but the results were very disappointing. The party did not get a single seat and its vote share remained limited to around 0.45 percent. At that time, Muslim voters had unilaterally expressed confidence in the Samajwadi Party to stop the BJP. However, this time Owaisi is working on ‘Bihar Model’, where he had achieved success through upper caste, Dalit and Muslim equations. This time Owaisi is preparing to field his candidates not on 95 but on about 200 seats. He is trying his best in Western UP, Awadh as well as on Dalit-Muslim dominated seats. His recent meeting with Swami Prasad Maurya and the possibility of alliance with Chandrashekhar Azad’s party is part of this strategy.

Why is there trouble for Akhilesh Yadav?

Owaisi has made his attitude clear by holding rallies in Bahraich, Bijnor and Najibabad. His direct allegation is that parties like SP take votes of Muslims but do not give them political rights. This strategy is directly challenging Akhilesh Yadav’s ‘MY’ (Muslim-Yadav) and ‘PDA’ equation. Political experts believe that if Owaisi fields strong candidates in areas like Western UP and Moradabad-Bareilly, where the Muslim population is 40 to 50 percent, then the Muslim vote bank is certain to be divided. If Owaisi cuts even 10 to 15 thousand votes on any seat, the entire electoral mathematics of SP may get spoiled.

Narrative of ‘fake secularism’ versus SP’s confidence

The biggest challenge for Akhilesh Yadav is to convince his Muslim voters that voting for Owaisi means directly benefiting the BJP. This time, Owaisi is trying to win Muslim youth to his side by setting the narrative of ‘fake secularism’. Owaisi’s aggressive stance is telling that the stronger he will be in the fight of 2027, the more difficult the path to Lucknow will become for Akhilesh Yadav. Only time will tell whether this 200 seat plan of Owaisi will really give SP sleepless nights, but it is certain that the election battle of UP is going to be more interesting.