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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a temporary easing of monsoon activity across parts of the Western Ghats over the next few days, even as eastern and northeastern India prepare for another spell of heavy to very heavy rainfall. Goa and the Konkan coast, which are usually drenched during mid-July, are expected to receive only isolated to scattered showers until July 16, with widespread rainfall likely to return from July 17. Similar conditions are expected across parts of Karnataka and Kerala, where rainfall is forecast to intensify later in the week.

The forecast points to a brief lull in rainfall over the northern stretches of the Western Ghats, particularly Goa, before the southwest monsoon regains momentum. Konkan & Goa are expected to witness isolated rainfall on July 14, scattered rainfall on July 15 and 16, and fairly widespread to widespread rainfall from July 17 onwards. Coastal Karnataka is expected to follow a similar trend, while Kerala is likely to see more widespread rainfall during July 18–20.

In contrast, the IMD has warned that eastern India will continue to remain under the influence of an active monsoon system. Bihar and Odisha are likely to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall on July 14, while heavy rainfall has also been forecast for Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and West Bengal & Sikkim.

The wet spell is expected to persist over much of the Northeast through July 19. Arunachal Pradesh is likely to witness heavy rainfall throughout the forecast period, while Assam & Meghalaya are expected to receive heavy rainfall during July 14–15 and again from July 17–19. Very heavy rainfall is likely over Assam & Meghalaya on July 16, while Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura could experience very heavy rainfall on July 17.


Across northwest India, rainfall activity is expected to increase gradually. Uttarakhand is likely to witness fairly widespread to widespread rainfall throughout July 14–19, with isolated heavy rainfall from July 15 onwards. Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir are expected to receive scattered rainfall initially before rainfall intensifies on July 18 and 19, when isolated heavy showers are also likely. East Uttar Pradesh is forecast to see heavy rainfall from July 17 to 19, while West Uttar Pradesh could receive isolated heavy rainfall during July 18–19.

Central India is also likely to remain under the influence of the monsoon, with scattered rainfall forecast over Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha through July 19. Chhattisgarh is expected to receive isolated heavy rainfall on July 14 and 15, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning over several districts.

Elsewhere in western India, Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada are likely to receive isolated to scattered rainfall during the forecast period. However, Konkan & Goa are expected to see a noticeable increase in rainfall intensity only from July 17, marking the return of more typical monsoon conditions.

In southern India, isolated to scattered rainfall has been forecast over Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Interior Karnataka, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema. Coastal Karnataka and Kerala are expected to receive more widespread rainfall during the latter half of the week. Strong surface winds and thunderstorms accompanied by lightning are also likely over parts of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh between July 14 and 17.

The IMD has also warned of heat wave conditions over isolated pockets of Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on July 14 and 15. Hot and humid weather is expected over Odisha on July 14 and over Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal during July 14–15.

According to the IMD's latest observations, heavy rainfall was recorded at isolated places over Gangetic West Bengal during the past 24 hours. Digha received 9 cm of rainfall, Chandbali in Odisha recorded 6 cm, Kolkata-Alipore received 5 cm and Dhubri in Assam recorded 4 cm. Bapatla in Andhra Pradesh emerged as the hottest place in the country with a maximum temperature of 42.1°C.

Meteorologically, the southwest monsoon continues to be supported by the monsoon trough extending from Bikaner through Lucknow and Patna to the east-central Bay of Bengal. An upper air cyclonic circulation persists over the North Bay of Bengal, while another circulation lies over north Gujarat and adjoining southwest Rajasthan, features that are expected to sustain rainfall over large parts of eastern, northeastern and northern India during the week.