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Arsenal are considering what would rank among the most astonishing transfers ever, but the chances of completing it appear slim. Over the weekend, it emerged that the Gunners are looking at a possible move for Real Madrid superstar Vinicius Junior, while Los Blancos were simultaneously stepping up their pursuit of RB Leipzig’s breakout talent Yan Diomande, who is valued at more than €120 million.

Unsurprisingly, there are already questions about where Diomande would fit in at Madrid, and the timing has naturally fuelled suspicion that Real could be preparing for life after Vinicius, with the Premier League champions exploring a deal for the Brazilian, who is still yet to agree a new contract at the Bernabeu.

But will one possible transfer actually influence the other? It has already been a dramatic summer window despite the distraction of the 2026 World Cup, yet this huge story involving two of the most sought-after wingers in world football could still overshadow everything else.

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One in, one out?

Less than 24 hours separated the major reports that Madrid had entered the race to sign Diomande and that Arsenal were exploring the possibility of bringing in Vinicius over the weekend.

Real quickly moved to the front of the queue for the Ivory Coast winger ahead of clubs such as Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain, with the French side eventually dropping out of the running. Although a total package worth €120m (£103m/$136m) was expected to be rejected by Leipzig, it is still anticipated that an agreement will be reached in due course.

That only makes Arsenal’s interest in Vinicius even more fascinating. The Gunners believe there may be a market opportunity because the 26-year-old has surprisingly entered the final year of his contract without any sort of breakthrough over an extension, and they may also have interpreted Madrid’s imminent major outlay on another winger in Diomande as a sign they would be open to a sale.

Taking advantage

Arsenal’s interest has been described as being “at an early stage”, and while an unrealistic €160m (£137m/$182) fee has been mentioned in Spain, it is clear the Premier League winners want to exploit the possibility that a superstar such as Vinicius could be available at a reduced price this summer.

Madrid are determined not to let the Brazilian leave for nothing in a year’s time, and contract talks have been dragging on for around 18 months without a resolution. The reason is that the winger wants a pay rise, despite already earning £400,000 a week at the Bernabeu. He is reportedly seeking as much as £470,000 per week before agreeing to sign.

On paper, that would seem to make the chances of a move to the Emirates even more remote, but it has been claimed that the Gunners are willing to meet those demands by offering the biggest contract in the club’s history.

Even so, there remains a strong possibility that Vinicius and his representatives could use Arsenal’s proposal as leverage in negotiations over a new deal with Los Blancos. The latest reports in the Spanish media suggest he has no intention of leaving Madrid and will return to the negotiating table in due course, with only a minimal gap between his demands and the club’s latest offer.

Cost-cutting measure?

Still, nothing is certain. After all, Vinicius’ contract talks would not have stalled if an agreement was really that close, although he has been on a break after starring for Brazil in what ultimately turned into a failed World Cup campaign.

As already mentioned, it would be highly striking for Real Madrid to spend what is likely to be more than €120m on a new winger when Vinicius is still at the club and would expect to start every game. Clubs do not spend that kind of money on a player just to leave him on the bench, even if Diomande is only 19 years old.

And with talks over a new contract for their No.7 currently at a standstill, plus the financial impact of renewing his deal if they also sign the Ivory Coast international, could this be a cost-cutting move? In the long term, Los Blancos would save a huge amount by taking what could be one of their final chances to cash in on Vinicius and replacing him with Leipzig’s teenager, who would command significantly lower wages and has an equally high ceiling.

Real have been notably careful in the transfer market in recent years; they have not spent more than €100m on a player since signing Jude Bellingham from Borussia Dortmund three years ago, instead focusing on smart business such as the free transfers of Kylian Mbappe and, more recently, Ibrahima Konate and Bernardo Silva.

So it would be surprising if Diomande arrived without that cost being balanced in one way or another, especially with a move for Manchester City’s Rodri also in the works - another player who would expect a huge salary.

Time for a change?

There is also an argument that Vinicius’ time at the Bernabeu may be approaching its natural end. It is now eight years since the forward arrived in the Spanish capital from Flamengo, and he has since made around 375 appearances for the club while establishing himself as one of the finest wide players in world football. Even so, he remains a divisive figure among the supporters, having initially struggled to make an impact.

Vinicius was subjected to abuse from his own fans throughout 2025-26, which ended up being another trophyless campaign for Los Blancos. Beyond the general frustrations of the fanbase, that was likely linked to a drop in his output and the fact that his season unfolded against the backdrop of an unresolved contract situation.

It was, of course, one such incident in the Champions League against Benfica last term that led to current Madrid boss Jose Mourinho - who was in charge of the Portuguese side at the time - bizarrely portraying Vinicius as a troublemaker.

“There is something wrong because it happens in every stadium,” Mourinho said after the Brazilian was allegedly racially abused by Argentine Gianluca Prestianni. “A stadium where Vinicius plays, something happens, always.” The player is unlikely to have forgotten those comments quickly as he prepares to start working under the highly respected coach.

It is also not the first time in recent years that Vinicius has been linked with a transfer. Saudi powerhouse Al-Ahli have made no attempt to hide their desire to sign the 26-year-old, even showing a willingness to make a world-record bid of €350m (£296m/$365m) in 2025, while the winger was reportedly offered a €1 billion contract. However, he wanted to remain at the Bernabeu. Whether that position has changed remains to be seen.

‘Not robust enough’

If Arsenal’s “early interest” does develop into something more concrete, then Vinicius’ suitability for the Premier League is likely to come under scrutiny. There is a perception that his style of play may be less effective against more physical opponents, even though there is no doubt at all about his technical quality.

“For me it’s always been inconsistent [his form], and that’s been an issue for me,” Brazilian football expert Jon Cotterill told talkSPORT recently. “I also think perhaps he might not be robust enough for the Premier League, and I’d prefer someone like Julian Alvarez, the Argentine who’s at Atletico Madrid, who’s had Premier League experience as well.

“The clubs are limited who’ve got that kind of price tag, but again for me it’s not only the price. What’s he going to do? How is he going to fit in? Can he fit in around the team they’ve got, and can he fit into the style they’ve got as well? The technical side of things, there’s no question about the skills he’s got. He’s an absolutely fabulous player, but again I think inconsistent.”

For whatever reason, some players never feel like certain successes in England’s top division regardless of how talented they are individually, and Vinicius is one of them. However, he will point to his Champions League record as evidence against that theory; the Brazilian has produced a remarkable 21 goal contributions in only 26 appearances against the Premier League’s best, including a brace against Manchester City in last season’s round of 16.

Madrid unmoved

Ultimately, though, all of that may prove irrelevant. It is difficult to escape the feeling that the most likely outcome remains Vinicius signing a huge new contract at Real Madrid and leaving Arsenal and any other interested clubs disappointed.

Despite his previous harsh comments about the attacker, it has been reported that Mourinho does not want Vini Jr to leave this summer - a player he considers part of an untouchable core of key stars. Contract talks are due to resume this week, and Arsenal’s interest may simply speed up negotiations rather than trigger an exit. In fact, there has so far been no indication that he wants to leave.

Speaking in June, Real president Florentino Perez made the club’s position crystal clear: “Vini is one of the best players in the world and he is delighted to be a Madrid player. He was decisive in winning the last two European Cups and he has one year left on his contract. There is still time, but I tell you Vinicius wants to stay at Madrid and I want him to stay.”

As for Diomande, it may yet be that the young Ivory Coast international ends up lining up alongside Vinicius. It has been claimed that his arrival would have no effect on Vini Jr’s situation, and the 19-year-old actually played more matches on the right for Leipzig last season before starring on the left at the World Cup. He was actually far more effective on that side too, producing 18 goal contributions in 22 outings on the right.

Arsenal, then, may have to turn their attention elsewhere, while Madrid and Mourinho continue putting together what could become one of Europe’s most fearsome attacks.