New Delhi: India’s southwest monsoon is expected to remain active and strengthen further during the first half of August, offering hope after an uneven start to the rainy season. The latest rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that the country’s overall monsoon rainfall deficit has reduced to 14%, marking a clear improvement compared to earlier weeks.
Weather experts say the revival has been triggered by the strongest weather system of this monsoon season so far, a deep depression moving across Maharashtra. The system has significantly boosted rainfall across large parts of the country over the past few days.
The deep depression is embedded within the active monsoon trough and has drawn large amounts of moisture from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The weather system has also been strengthened by the Somali Jet, a powerful low-level wind current that carries moisture from the Arabian Sea towards the Indian subcontinent.
The combined effect of these weather systems has created favourable conditions for widespread and heavy rainfall across central and western India.
Heavy showers have already been recorded in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and neighbouring regions. The weather system is expected to continue moving westward over the coming days.
According to IMD rainfall data, Central India and Northwest India are now receiving near-normal seasonal rainfall. However, parts of South India and East and Northeast India continue to report below-normal rainfall.
States including Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh have witnessed noticeable improvement in rainfall during the past week.
Forecasters expect fresh low-pressure systems to form over the Bay of Bengal in early August. These systems are likely to keep the monsoon active, bringing more rainfall across central, western and parts of northern India.
If this trend continues, the national rainfall deficit could reduce further, improving water storage in reservoirs, supporting kharif crops and easing concerns over agricultural production. Meteorologists believe the next two weeks will be crucial in determining whether the country can recover most of the rainfall shortfall accumulated during June and early July.
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