A strengthening El Niño weather pattern is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions to many parts of the world in the coming months, raising concerns over India's monsoon and increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the developing El Niño is intensifying the effects of climate change, describing it as "adding fuel to a planet already on fire" and pushing the world into "uncharted territory."
According to the WMO's latest seasonal outlook, the El Niño is forecast to strengthen between August and October, leading to above-average global temperatures. While some regions are likely to receive heavier rainfall, others could face prolonged dry spells and worsening drought conditions.
The agency also warned that marine heatwaves are expected to become more severe, with sea surface temperatures in some areas projected to rise by more than 2.9 degrees Celsius above normal.
Guterres said the Pacific Ocean waters driving the phenomenon are unusually warm for this stage of an El Niño event and continue to heat up, increasing the risk of record-breaking temperatures and more intense climate impacts worldwide.
India's Monsoon Under Pressure
The WMO highlighted a growing possibility of below-normal monsoon rainfall over India, a development that could affect agriculture, which depends heavily on seasonal rains. The outlook suggests an increased risk of drought, flooding and wildfires across countries surrounding the Indian Ocean.
Apart from India, drier-than-normal conditions are expected across parts of equatorial Africa west of the Horn of Africa, southern and eastern Australia, large parts of South America and sections of North America.
The forecast also points to above-normal rainfall in southern Europe, Central Asia, the Horn of Africa and parts of southeastern South America during the August-October period.
Climate Change Amplifying El Niño
Scientists have long anticipated the return of El Niño, the naturally occurring Pacific Ocean climate pattern that influences weather across the globe. However, researchers say this event is unfolding against the backdrop of a warming climate, making its impacts potentially more severe than in previous years.
Although the term "super El Niño" is often used to describe exceptionally strong events, the WMO has not officially adopted that classification. It has, however, indicated that the current El Niño is likely to be significantly stronger than average due to unusually warm ocean temperatures developing earlier than normal.
The warning comes after months of extreme weather across the globe, including record-breaking heatwaves, destructive wildfires and other climate-related disasters that scientists say have been intensified by global warming.
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