Top News

• The stock is over 50% below its intraday peak following four straight weekly declines, while short sellers have amassed $8.3 billion in paper profits.
• Zhu said SpaceX faces an “identity crisis” across its launch, connectivity and AI businesses.
• Koyfin consensus expects $6.82 billion in revenue, $2.05 billion in EBITDA and an adjusted loss of $0.23 per share.

SpaceX heads into its first earnings report as a public company after a $500 billion market-value wipeout, with investors weighing CEO Elon Musk’s promise of massive growth against an analyst’s warning that the sprawling business faces an “identity crisis.”

SpaceX’s $500B Wipeout Raises Earnings Stakes

The company reports after Tuesday’s closing bell, less than two months after its June 12 debut. SpaceX has lost more than $500 billion in market value since its first trade and enters earnings after four consecutive weekly declines. The stock is more than 50% below its intraday peak. Meanwhile, short sellers had amassed $8.3 billion in paper profits since the IPO as of Friday, CNBC reported, citing S3 Partners. 

More pressure could follow as rolling lockups begin expiring, allowing early investors to sell. Despite the rout, SpaceX remains valued at about $1.4 trillion.

Analyst Flags SpaceX’s ‘Identity Crisis’

MoffettNathanson analyst Julie Zhu said SpaceX’s launch, satellite-connectivity and AI operations make the company unusually difficult to value. “SpaceX, in our view, sort of has almost a bit of an identity crisis,” Zhu said, pointing to its many different businesses, as per a Bloomberg interview. 

Despite the excitement surrounding Starlink and AI, she considers launch the foundation supporting everything else. “For us, the crown jewel is really the launch piece,” Zhu said. Without SpaceX’s scarce rocket capacity, its connectivity network would be harder to deploy and orbital data centers “wouldn’t even be a topic of discussion.” MoffettNathanson is below consensus on SpaceX’s longer-term AI and connectivity prospects, but Zhu does not expect Tuesday’s report to settle the debate.

“We’re probably not going to hear all that much tomorrow to help us reset those expectations,” she said. The firm expects a near-term beat from terrestrial AI, though spending will likely remain elevated. SpaceX’s compute agreements with Google, Anthropic and Reflection AI carry pricing two to three times typical neocloud rates, which could help the quarter while raising a longer-term “question of sustainability.”

Wall Street Expects $6.82B In Revenue

Koyfin consensus estimates call for $6.82 billion in second-quarter revenue and $2.05 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. SpaceX is expected to post an adjusted loss of $0.23 per share. Investors will likely focus on Starship, Starlink profitability, AI spending and the capital needed to support several expensive projects simultaneously.

Over the weekend, Musk replied “Few understand” to an X post claiming SpaceX could add revenue equivalent to Tesla’s entire business within 12 to 24 months. Based on Tesla’s latest financials, that implies $95 billion to $104 billion in additional annualized revenue. Musk also appeared to endorse a post calling SpaceX stock an “insane” investment “opportunity in retrospect.”

SpaceX’s AI And Starship Face Key Tests

SpaceX is leasing excess computing capacity as it develops its own AI services. Its Google agreement reportedly generates $920 million monthly, while Anthropic and Reflection AI have separate arrangements. The company merged with Musk’s xAI in February and plans to acquire AI-coding company Cursor for $60 billion, with closing expected in the third quarter subject to regulatory approval.

Starship remains central to lowering launch costs and deploying next-generation Starlink satellites. SpaceX expects payload deliveries to begin in the second half of 2026. The rocket completed its 13th test flight on July 24, although its Super Heavy booster suffered a hard splashdown after only some engines reignited for landing.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About SPCX?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SPCX slipped to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish’ levels a day ago amid a 350% surge in 24-hour message volumes.

One user said, “$SPCX it’s actually exciting to hear the doubters and haters. Reminds me of Facebook, Uber, Amazon, and Tesla in their early days. Except these are rockets, ai, and global telecommunications.”

Meanwhile, a bearish user said, “$SPCX Lets see how much money they are burning with xAI. Im not too optimistic”

SPCX stock has declined 29% so far this year. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<