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Tennessee Governor Race Tests Trump Allies Blackburn and Rose/ TezzBuzz/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Tennessee Republicans are choosing between Sen. Marsha Blackburn and Rep. John Rose in a tightening primary contest for governor. The winner will be heavily favored in November in a state Donald Trump carried by nearly 30 percentage points in the 2024 election. Voters are also selecting nominees for a redrawn Memphis-area House district that analysts now consider safely Republican.

Quick Look

• Tennessee is holding its gubernatorial primary Thursday.
• Marsha Blackburn and John Rose are the leading Republican candidates.
• Both are close congressional allies of Trump.
• The winner will compete to succeed term-limited Gov. Bill Lee.
• Blackburn held substantial polling leads for much of the campaign.
• Recent signs indicate that Rose has narrowed the contest.
• State Rep. Monty Fritts could split the conservative vote.
• Fritts identifies as a Christian nationalist.
• Five candidates are seeking the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.
• Memphis City Council member Jerri Green is among the Democratic candidates.
• Trump carried Tennessee by nearly 30 points in 2024.
• Republicans are expected to retain the governor’s office.
• Tennessee Republicans redrew a majority-Black Memphis congressional district.
• Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen is not seeking reelection.
• Justin Pearson and London Lamar are competing in the Democratic House primary.
• Trump endorsed Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor for the House seat.

Deep Look

Tennessee Republicans Choose Governor Nominee

WASHINGTON — Tennessee Republicans are voting Thursday in a closely watched gubernatorial primary featuring two prominent allies of President Donald Trump.

Sen. Marsha Blackburn and Rep. John Rose are competing for the Republican nomination to succeed Gov. Bill Lee.

Lee has served two terms and cannot run again because of term limits.

Republican Nominee Heavily Favored in November

Tennessee remains one of the most reliably Republican states in the country.

Trump won the state by nearly 30 percentage points during the 2024 presidential election.

The Republican nominee is therefore widely expected to defeat the Democratic candidate in November and become Tennessee’s next governor.

Blackburn Brings Decades of Congressional Experience

Blackburn, 74, served 16 years in the U.S. House before winning election to the Senate in 2018 and taking office in 2019.

She has built a national profile as a strong conservative and close Trump ally.

Her experience, statewide recognition and existing political organization helped her establish an early advantage in the gubernatorial primary.

Rose Challenges Blackburn’s Early Lead

Rose, 61, represents Tennessee in the U.S. House and has also aligned himself closely with Trump.

Blackburn led Rose by comfortable double-digit margins in opinion surveys for much of the campaign.

However, recent indications suggest the race has become more competitive as voters prepare to cast their ballots.

Third Candidate Could Influence Outcome

State Rep. Monty Fritts is also seeking the Republican nomination.

The 62-year-old describes himself as a Christian nationalist and holds strongly conservative positions.

His support among far-right voters could affect the contest by drawing votes from Blackburn or Rose.

That possibility gives Fritts the potential to act as a spoiler even if he does not win the nomination.

Five Democrats Seek Governor Nomination

Five candidates are competing in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

The field includes Jerri Green, a member of the Memphis City Council.

The eventual Democratic nominee will face a difficult general election in a state where Republicans dominate statewide politics.

Memphis House District Redrawn

Tennessee’s primary also includes the first U.S. House race since the Republican-controlled state government redrew its congressional boundaries.

The new map dismantled a majority-Black Memphis district currently represented by Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen.

Independent political analysts now classify the redrawn seat as safely Republican.

Cohen Declines to Seek Reelection

Cohen chose not to run for another term under the new district boundaries.

His retirement created an open-seat contest and sparked competitive primaries in both parties.

The result is expected to add another Republican seat to Tennessee’s congressional delegation.

Pearson and Lamar Lead Democratic House Field

Four Democrats are seeking their party’s nomination for the Memphis-area House district.

The candidates include state Rep. Justin Pearson, a progressive who has received support from Sen. Bernie Sanders and more than a dozen progressive members of Congress.

State Sen. London Lamar is also running with endorsements from Cohen and Memphis Mayor Paul Young.

Their contest reflects another Democratic debate between progressive insurgents and candidates supported by local party leaders.

Four Republicans Compete for House Nomination

Four candidates are seeking the Republican nomination for the redrawn congressional seat.

State Sen. Brent Taylor enters the primary with endorsements from Trump and Republican members of Congress.

State Rep. Todd Warner is also among the candidates.

Because the district is now considered safely Republican, the GOP primary winner will be strongly favored in November.

Primary Could Reshape Tennessee Leadership

Thursday’s election could determine both the state’s next governor and the representative of a newly Republican-leaning Memphis congressional district.

The gubernatorial contest will show whether Blackburn’s statewide stature can withstand Rose’s late challenge and whether Fritts divides the most conservative voters.

The House race will also demonstrate the immediate political effect of Tennessee’s new congressional boundaries.

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